Week 9 - ESPN Game Day Crew in Philly for Irish-Owls, A Cocktail Party Classic in Jacksonville, and Turtle Soup in Iowa City

Last Week Straight Up: 5-1

Last Week ATS: 3-3
YTD Straight Up: 41-7
YTD ATS: 28-21

Notre Dame (-10) at Temple

The ESPN Game Day crew descends on the City of Brotherly Love for the first ever battle of ranked college football teams involving a team named Temple.  Plenty of heart-warming storylines and speculative what-ifs surrounding this one, but My Numbers aren’t feeling the drama.  Temple’s defense has been solid against the teams they’ve played, but Penn State and East Carolina are the best that lot.  They’re facing more than that on Saturday night.

I say the Fighting Irish, coming in off a bye, will avoid a flat start in this one given the buildup, that DeShone Kizer will take care of the football all evening, that C. J. Prosise will pick up his 6^th 100+ yard rushing game in the last 7 for Notre Dame, and that Temple’s punter will earn his varsity letter on Saturday night.  Irish win and cover.

Notre Dame 31 Temple 18

Notre Dame win probability: 80%
Notre Dame cover probability: 57%

 

Illinois at Penn State (-5.5)

Illinois managed only 55 yards on 13 rushing attempts in their loss to Wisconsin last week.  No surprise they’re dead last in the B10 running the football right now.  And while QB Wes Lunt is holding up under the added pressure of a moth-balled running game, his passing efficiency numbers are slipping.  Truth be told, skill position injuries (RB, WR) have stalled the Illini offense more than anything else this season.

I don’t think this particular Nittany Lion pack is good enough to blow anybody out in the B10, and the Illinois defense is every bit as good as PSU’s from a yards per play perspective.  But I do think Penn State can beat a wounded Illini team by more than 5.5 points in Happy Valley on Saturday.  The model agrees.

Penn State 24 Illinois 18

Penn State win probability: 61%
Penn State cover probability: 49%

 

Tennessee (-8.5) at Kentucky

UT hung with Alabama for all but the last three minutes last weekend in a tough 19-14 loss whereas UK watched Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott light up the scoreboard like a pinball machine in a 42-16 loss to the Bulldogs.

All four Tennessee losses have been by a TD or less this year; you have to think that things are going to start falling the Volunteers way eventually.  Like this weekend, for example.

Tennessee 35 Kentucky 24

Tennessee win probability: 78%
Tennessee cover probability: 59%

 

Georgia vs. Florida (-3) at Jacksonville

The annual Georgia - Florida  “can’t call it the World’s Largest Cocktail Party anymore but everyone does anyway” game with boatloads at stake for both programs.  Florida, with only one loss, controls its own destiny in the SEC East and all the way into the CFB playoff, as loyal reader and proud Gator Dave Crow has emphatically stated to friends, neighbors, and perfect strangers all week. Georgia, similarly, can assert themselves in the SEC East and reboot their season with a win in yet another referendum on the Mark Richt era in Athens…which seems to happen about three or four times a season, doesn’t it???  

Both teams are led by their defenses and both have suffered critical injuries/suspensions this season.  But unfortunately the My Numbers model isn’t going to be much help to us in sorting this one out, gang.  The model says no bet, calling this game a 50/50 coin toss vs. the spread.

So when the quantitative approach can’t decide, we take a qualitative look.  And to me, something doesn’t seem right with UGA of late, particularly in their ugly, 9-6 home win over wildly beatable & offensively punchless Missouri last week.  Losing Chubb? Team chemistry? Tuning out Richt? All of the above? None of the above?  I’m not sure, but something isn’t clicking for the Bulldogs.  While on the other sideline, first year Gator head coach Jim McIlvaine looks more and more like an inspired hire every weekend to me.  If LSU (currently #2 in the My Numbers ranking) hadn’t pulled off a dramatic fake FG TD run last weekend, we would have heard about undefeated Florida every time we turned on ESPN this week.

My call?  A classic.  Don’t miss it.

Florida 27 Georgia 24, OT

Florida win probability: 56%
Florida cover probability: 50%

 

Maryland at Iowa (-17)
**** My Numbers Lock of the Week ***

Maryland, now playing under interim head coach Mike Locksley after Randy Edsall’s midseason sacking, is pretty easy to figure out.  The Terps are woefully inefficient, overall, on both sides of the ball and they simply cannot throw the football on offense.  At all.  47% completions and 11 TD passes vs. 20 interceptions gets you nothing but a pile of losses in the Big Ten these days.  The unbeaten Hawkeyes, on the other hand, are playing a very specific brand of no bullshit, run and stop the run football that has them staring down a bid in the B10 title game.

Any way you slice it, this one shapes up as a mismatch in Iowa City between two team cruising in opposite directions.  Give the points.

Iowa 38 Maryland 17

Iowa win probability: 94%
Iowa cover probability: 69%