Last Week ATS: 3-4
YTD Straight Up: 28-5
YTD ATS: 18-15
Michigan State at
Michigan (-8)
I am calling an
upset right off the bat this week, gang.
My numbers lean Michigan, but I am venturing off the spreadsheet (and maybe off the reservation?) on this one. Yes, UM is off three consecutive shut-outs
and yes, the inevitable resuscitation of the Michigan football program under
Jim Harbaugh looks to be a couple years ahead of schedule, but there are a few
checks you have to put in the Spartacus column in this one if you’re honest
with yourself. And the main one, from my
view, is Michigan State has a major QB advantage in this game. Michigan’s Jake Rudock is an adequate FBS
game-manager, at best, whereas Michigan State’s Connor Cook is a legitimate NFL
prospect. Rudock isn’t asked to do that
much for the Wolverines, he rarely puts pressure on the back half of defenses
via the deep ball, but despite that he’s managed to toss 6 INTs in 6 starts
this year vs. only 5 TDs (12 TDs vs. 2 INTs for Cook).
Few teams, if any, are
having any success running the football on Michigan this season and if MSU
stubbornly insists on stone age “establish the run” thinking on Saturday, they
will be playing right into Harbaugh’s hands.
Rather, if they move the chains early in the air, they just might be
able get the vaunted Michigan defense on its heels a bit and calm down the
riotous Big House crowd. As loyal reader
Mike Wagner pointed out to me this week, Michigan’s secondary hasn’t really
been tested this year. I suspect that
will change on Saturday.
Michigan’s defense
is getting a lot of well-deserved credit right now, but the better offense will
win this football game. Take the points. And if you are feeling bold, take the
Spartans. I am.
But I’m afraid it’s
not all not peaches and Paul Bunyan Trophies, Spartan fans. From the “you heard it here first”
department, prepare yourselves for some Mark Dantonio-to-South Carolina chatter any minute now. Before you laugh, pound your Green &
White chests, and shout “NO WAY,” check his diploma.
Michigan State win probability: 26%
Michigan State cover probability: 44%
Another game where
I’m going to deviate a little from my laptop.
It is tough to model general team health into a football game selection
algorithm, and because of that (specifically the health of the West Virginia secondary) I
suspect Baylor will push the Mountaineers past the spread in this one. WVA lost safety Karl Joseph for the season
two weeks ago to a knee injury and while they were able to hang with Oklahoma
State in a tight loss last weekend without their senior leader, containing the
Bears and their fast break passing game without Joseph will be an entirely
different matter.
My Numbers say Baylor
wins but doesn’t cover. I agree with the
“win” part, but will nudge that a little further and say the Bears, behind the most
efficient offense in the county, will roll the injury-depleted ‘Neers just like they have rolled
everyone else to date.
Baylor 48 West Virginia 24
Baylor win probability: 85%
Baylor cover probability: 40%
Too much Dalvin
Cook for the Cardinals. The Seminoles,
for all their flash and annually elevated team speed, are quietly leaning on an old-fashioned, grinding running game this season. Louisville’s D was better a year ago &
won’t be enough on Saturday.
Florida State 27
Louisville 18
Florida State win
probability: 74% Florida State cover probability: 60%
The suspension of
Florida QB Will Grier weighs heavily over this one. While I believe UF is still a viable SEC East
factor, losing Grier for this particular trip to the Bayou will be too much to
overcome.
The Gators will hang
around enough to cover -7.5 but not enough to knock off the Tigers and Heisman
front-runner Leonard Fournette in Death Valley.
LSU 24 Florida 18
LSU win
probability: 56%LSU cover probability: 39%
The Hoosiers may very well have to have this one if they’re going to get to the ever-elusive six win mark this season and break their 8 year bowl-less streak (8 years that feels more like 80). My Numbers say they will and I agree. In breathless IU fashion, as usual.
Indiana 31 Rutgers
27
Indiana win
probability: 63%Indiana cover probability: 48%
Don’t bet this
one. Watch it, but don’t bet it. The model likes Alabama in this visit to
College Station. And while I agree that
the Tide will come in, I don’t think they’ll “roll.” I’m calling the dreaded push here.
Alabama 28 Texas
A&M 24
Alabama win
probability: 70%Alabama cover probability: 60%
No respect from
Vegas for the Purple Cats in this one.
Or not enough customers willing to walk off the Strip and plunk down cash on Northwestern’s
sputtering offense? My Numbers show a
slight lean towards the home team in this one, but I’m not agreeing until
I see more from NU when they have the football.
I think the Hawkeyes win a tight one in Evanston on Saturday.
Iowa 18
Northwestern 15
Iowa win
probability: 51%Iowa cover probability: 44%
NIU’s offense got a
little mojo back vs. Ball State last weekend and will keep the train rolling in
Oxford, OH. Take the Huskies and lay the
15 point hammer.
Northern Illinois 38 Miami-OH 20
Northern Illinois win probability: 89%
Northern Illinois cover probability: 60%
The Rockets are the
best team in the country that most know nothing about, from the MAC 10 or otherwise, which is why you read My
Numbers, loyal subscribers!!! Give the points and side with My Numbers' best bet. Toledo by a
bundle.
Toledo 42 Eastern Michigan
13
Toledo win
probability: 98%Toledo cover probability: 70%
Good thing Pat Hayden
authorized a $1MM payment for a national search firm to help him lock in on the
now-departed Steve Sarkisian. It bought
him some lame cover, at least. I still
can’t help but wonder, as callous as it sounds, if the tabloid-like narrative
surrounding Sarkisian would be spilling out the way it is if USC was playing up to
their talent, was 6-0, and in the Top 5 like everyone figured. I'll go a little farther and say that the booze,
etc., is a convenient excuse for USC to bag a coach who was completely in over
his head from the get-go and never should have been hired in the first place.
Nothing about Sarkisian’s alcohol issues are really news. Those stories have
been floating around forever. He’s the
same guy and same coach he was when he was racking up unimpressive 7-win
seasons at Washington. So shame on
Hayden. I though Rhodes Scholars were a
little more clever than this. That’s two
consecutive head football coaches hired by Pat Hayden and fired mid-season by Pat Hayden, for those of
you scoring at home.
The Irish took care
of business at home against Navy last weekend and the embarrassing spanking that
USC put on a depleted Notre Dame defense a year ago will be fresh in the minds of everyone wearing a gold hat
Saturday night. Given how quickly the
last USC game spun out of control for the Irish, I have felt all year that this
game was one that Brian Kelly would be pointing to with this particular group
of players. The proverbial kitchen sink
game, if you will. And I still feel that
way, despite the clamoring and distracting noise from the Sarkisian Circus. If it is in the Irish arsenal, we will see it on Saturday.
I think six-points-and-a-hook
is pricy, but My Numbers say Notre Dame will still be alive in the national
CFB playoff hunt after this game.
Notre Dame 31 USC
27
Notre Dame win
probability: 63%Notre Dame cover probability: 49%
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