Week 9 - ESPN Game Day Crew in Philly for Irish-Owls, A Cocktail Party Classic in Jacksonville, and Turtle Soup in Iowa City

Last Week Straight Up: 5-1

Last Week ATS: 3-3
YTD Straight Up: 41-7
YTD ATS: 28-21

Notre Dame (-10) at Temple

The ESPN Game Day crew descends on the City of Brotherly Love for the first ever battle of ranked college football teams involving a team named Temple.  Plenty of heart-warming storylines and speculative what-ifs surrounding this one, but My Numbers aren’t feeling the drama.  Temple’s defense has been solid against the teams they’ve played, but Penn State and East Carolina are the best that lot.  They’re facing more than that on Saturday night.

I say the Fighting Irish, coming in off a bye, will avoid a flat start in this one given the buildup, that DeShone Kizer will take care of the football all evening, that C. J. Prosise will pick up his 6^th 100+ yard rushing game in the last 7 for Notre Dame, and that Temple’s punter will earn his varsity letter on Saturday night.  Irish win and cover.

Notre Dame 31 Temple 18

Notre Dame win probability: 80%
Notre Dame cover probability: 57%

 

Illinois at Penn State (-5.5)

Illinois managed only 55 yards on 13 rushing attempts in their loss to Wisconsin last week.  No surprise they’re dead last in the B10 running the football right now.  And while QB Wes Lunt is holding up under the added pressure of a moth-balled running game, his passing efficiency numbers are slipping.  Truth be told, skill position injuries (RB, WR) have stalled the Illini offense more than anything else this season.

I don’t think this particular Nittany Lion pack is good enough to blow anybody out in the B10, and the Illinois defense is every bit as good as PSU’s from a yards per play perspective.  But I do think Penn State can beat a wounded Illini team by more than 5.5 points in Happy Valley on Saturday.  The model agrees.

Penn State 24 Illinois 18

Penn State win probability: 61%
Penn State cover probability: 49%

 

Tennessee (-8.5) at Kentucky

UT hung with Alabama for all but the last three minutes last weekend in a tough 19-14 loss whereas UK watched Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott light up the scoreboard like a pinball machine in a 42-16 loss to the Bulldogs.

All four Tennessee losses have been by a TD or less this year; you have to think that things are going to start falling the Volunteers way eventually.  Like this weekend, for example.

Tennessee 35 Kentucky 24

Tennessee win probability: 78%
Tennessee cover probability: 59%

 

Georgia vs. Florida (-3) at Jacksonville

The annual Georgia - Florida  “can’t call it the World’s Largest Cocktail Party anymore but everyone does anyway” game with boatloads at stake for both programs.  Florida, with only one loss, controls its own destiny in the SEC East and all the way into the CFB playoff, as loyal reader and proud Gator Dave Crow has emphatically stated to friends, neighbors, and perfect strangers all week. Georgia, similarly, can assert themselves in the SEC East and reboot their season with a win in yet another referendum on the Mark Richt era in Athens…which seems to happen about three or four times a season, doesn’t it???  

Both teams are led by their defenses and both have suffered critical injuries/suspensions this season.  But unfortunately the My Numbers model isn’t going to be much help to us in sorting this one out, gang.  The model says no bet, calling this game a 50/50 coin toss vs. the spread.

So when the quantitative approach can’t decide, we take a qualitative look.  And to me, something doesn’t seem right with UGA of late, particularly in their ugly, 9-6 home win over wildly beatable & offensively punchless Missouri last week.  Losing Chubb? Team chemistry? Tuning out Richt? All of the above? None of the above?  I’m not sure, but something isn’t clicking for the Bulldogs.  While on the other sideline, first year Gator head coach Jim McIlvaine looks more and more like an inspired hire every weekend to me.  If LSU (currently #2 in the My Numbers ranking) hadn’t pulled off a dramatic fake FG TD run last weekend, we would have heard about undefeated Florida every time we turned on ESPN this week.

My call?  A classic.  Don’t miss it.

Florida 27 Georgia 24, OT

Florida win probability: 56%
Florida cover probability: 50%

 

Maryland at Iowa (-17)
**** My Numbers Lock of the Week ***

Maryland, now playing under interim head coach Mike Locksley after Randy Edsall’s midseason sacking, is pretty easy to figure out.  The Terps are woefully inefficient, overall, on both sides of the ball and they simply cannot throw the football on offense.  At all.  47% completions and 11 TD passes vs. 20 interceptions gets you nothing but a pile of losses in the Big Ten these days.  The unbeaten Hawkeyes, on the other hand, are playing a very specific brand of no bullshit, run and stop the run football that has them staring down a bid in the B10 title game.

Any way you slice it, this one shapes up as a mismatch in Iowa City between two team cruising in opposite directions.  Give the points.

Iowa 38 Maryland 17

Iowa win probability: 94%
Iowa cover probability: 69%

Week 9 - Top 25 - No Lions, Two Tigers, No Bears...Oh My

Clemson's convincing road win at Miami FL this weekend enabled the Tigers flip back into the top spot of the My Number rankings this week AND pushed Al Golden off the hot seat and into the soup line.  

LSU slides to #2 by the thinnest of margins this week and Alabama remains a solid #3.  Alabama's schedule has been so tough to date, the mathematical probability of them falling out of my Top 4 is slim and none if they continue winning.   LSU, on the other hand, is balanced and is getting better-than-expected play from QB Brandon Harris to compliment an Eric Dickerson-like backfield weapon in Heisman favorite Leonard Fournette.  Both teams are off this weekend and on bye weeks to prepare for . . . each other.  The LSU @ Alabama game on November 7th is clearly set up as a My Numbers final four play-in game and could very well be one of the best match-ups of the season from where I'm sitting.  A heavyweight war.

Oklahoma rounds out the Top 4 this week, trailing Alabama by only a decimal point.  Interestingly enough, the My Numbers model likes the Sooners more right now than any of the three unbeaten Big 12 teams (TCU, Oklahoma State, and Baylor).  Why?  Schedule.  TCU's schedule to date has been middle-of-the-road, OK State's has been weaker than TCU's, and Baylor's has been so soft I still don't know what to make of the Bear's off-the-charts offensive efficiency rating.  To Baylor's defense, though, their upcoming Big 12 gauntlet (vs. Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, and at TCU on consecutive November weekends) will spice up their SOS rating for sure.  QB Seth Russell's neck injury last weekend, however, was simply awful news for an exciting Baylor offense that will now turn to true freshman Jarett Stidham under center.  Damn...

	team	W	L	sos	oeff	deff	rank score
1	Clemson	7	0	27	35	6	14.0
2	LSU	7	0	31	6	29	14.3
3	Alabama	7	1	8	61	7	17.6
4	Oklahoma	6	1	26	20	13	17.7
5	Iowa	7	0	37	45	9	18.7
6	Stanford	6	1	24	17	40	20.6
7	Notre Dame	6	1	19	4	66	21.0
8	TCU	7	0	57	2	46	23.6
9	Ohio State	8	0	70	16	12	24.4
10	Utah	6	1	9	73	47	25.3
11	Florida	6	1	20	75	25	25.6
12	Mississippi	6	2	48	11	8	27.6
13	Oklahoma State	7	0	79	28	14	29.0
14	Florida State	6	1	56	23	35	29.9
15	UCLA	5	2	22	29	37	30.7
16	Mississippi State	6	2	53	14	34	33.1
17	Baylor	7	0	99	1	31	33.3
18	Texas A&M	5	2	11	58	50	33.6
19	California	5	2	15	27	74	33.7
20	BYU	6	2	38	32	51	33.9
	USC	4	3	10	7	60	33.9
22	Pittsburgh	6	1	42	72	45	34.3
	Michigan State	8	0	63	49	62	34.3
24	Georgia	5	2	54	15	21	35.6
25	Northwestern	6	2	18	123	17	36.3

Week 8 - Indiana Faces Charmed Spartans in East Lansing, Illini Ask Bucky Badger to the Homecoming Dance, and Northwestern Meets Angry Huskers in the Corn Belt

Last Week Straight Up: 9-1

Last Week ATS: 7-3
YTD Straight Up: 37-6
YTD ATS: 25-18

Seven winners out of ten games against the spread last week last week, sports fans.  Accessing this blog on a Smart Phone anywhere within 50 miles of the Las Vegas Strip will be a misdemeanor in the state of Nevada any day now!

 

Indiana at Michigan State (-16)

Lost in the madness and post-game chatter concerning MSU’s dramatic, last-play, botched punt win at Michigan last weekend, to me, is the fact that the Spartans really outplayed Michigan (150 more yards, 10 more first downs).  I said last week that the better offense would win that one and I was right, although I can’t claim to have predicted the miracle finish!

Indiana’s epic, 25-point collapse at home vs. Rutgers has many in Bloomington scratching their heads and wondering if the Kevin Wilson regime has hit a ceiling it will never break through.  IU has a plus passing game and the most efficient QB in the Big Ten in Nate Sudfeld, but none of that matters when the Indiana’s worst-in-conference defense takes the field.  The Hoosiers simply don’t stop anyone with any consistency and when you toss in three 4^th quarter turnovers like IU had last weekend, you have all the ingredients necessary for disaster chili.

Spartacus may feel a little hangover from last weekend but they are too well-coached to get too far out over their skis.  Every game is a playoff game for MSU from here on out.  State wins and covers.

 

Michigan State 45 Indiana 27
Michigan State win probability: 86%
Michigan State cover provability: 55%

 

Northwestern at Nebraska (-7)

The Huskers has moved the football all year but their surprisingly weak pass defense has let them down late in more than one game this season.  A visit from Northwestern may be just what the doctor ordered for Big Red.  NU completes only a shade over 50% of their pass attempts and Wildcat RB Justin Jackson appears to have been noticed in Big Ten video rooms; only 55 yards rushing for Jackson in the last two games after 500+ in the first five.  I think Northwestern’s inability to mount drives and stay on the field (only 23 offensive possession minutes against Iowa) is exhausting their defense.

Bad spot for the Purple Cats.

Nebraska 35 Northwestern 13

Nebraska win probability: 78%
Nebraska cover probability: 63%

 

Wisconsin (-6) at Illinois
 
The Badgers are as tough to score on as ever, but their offense has been almost unrecognizable of late.  UW is winning through the air rather than pounding the rock (consecutive 300+ yard passing efforts by QB Joel Stave and ~45 passing attempts/game in the last two).  In fact, Wisconsin currently ranks 12^th in the Big Ten in rushing which has to be giving Boss Alvarez heart burn, despite the 5-2 record.  Iowa was able to run the football against Illinois last weekend; the story in this one may come down to whether or not Wisconsin can as well.

Illini QB Wes Lunt has quietly thrown 9 TDs vs. only 2 INTs this season but RB Ferguson will be missed again on Saturday. 

I’ll take the points but say Illinois falls short on Homecoming weekend in Urbana.

Wisconsin 27 Illinois 24

Wisconsin win probability: 66%
Wisconsin cover probability: 50%

 

Utah at USC (-3.5)

The embattled Trojans, five days after waving goodbye to head coach Steve Sarkisian and saying hello again to semi-annually interim head coach Clay Helton, rallied from a 14-point deficit in South Bend last Saturday night but fell to the Irish 41-31.  If USC QB Cody Kessler had not thrown 2 late INTs and the Trojans had not piled up over 100 penalty yards, the outcome of that one might have been very different.

Vegas won’t call this one an upset but the pollsters sure will.  The Men of Troy, in a must-win situation at home, show a Pac-12 South pulse and knock off the unbeaten UUs.

USC 31 Utah 27

USC win probability: 63%
USC cover probability: 56%

 

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois (-27.5)

EMU’s almost non-existent run defense will give up over 300 yards rushing to NIU in this one.  Write it down.

Huskies by a truckload.

Northern Illinois 51 Eastern Michigan 21

Northern Illinois win probability: 97%
Northern Illinois cover probability: 56%

 

**** Wyoming at Boise State (-35) *****
      My Numbers Lock of the Week!!!!

Give all the points you have to in this one and take the favored Broncos on their Smurf-blue home field turf over the troubled Cowpokes.  My Numbers are calling for a completely one-sided, lock-of-the-week blowout.

Boise State 56 Wyoming 10

Boise State win probability: 99%
Boise State cover probability: 65% 

Week 8 - Top 25 - Tigers Rising

LSU is back on top of the My Numbers Top 25 after their 7-point home win over Florida on Saturday.  If the 4-team playoff were next weekend, I would make the Bayou Tigers the #1 seed and match them up against #4 Clemson, who similarly continues to do all the right things.  Alabama looks more impressive by the week to me and to My Numbers; the Tide clock in as a solid #2 this week. And just like the AP poll suggests, I would put one Big Ten team in the playoff right now, but that one team wouldn't be Ohio State or Michigan State.  Sorry Brutus & Sparty, but Iowa has played just as well or better against a tougher schedule and I don't care what anybody did last season.

I think the game of the week coming up just might be Utah at USC.  The Utes are the only undefeated FBS team that has played a Top 20 schedule to date and they are #6 in the My Numbers ratings right now.  I suspect, though, that if USC can catch their breath after the Sarkisian Circus and trip to South Bend, they might have enough talent to slow down the UUs.

I'll run the numbers and let you know!

	team	W	L	sos rnk	oeff rnk	deff rnk	rank score
1	LSU	6	0	28	10	28	13.9
2	Alabama	6	1	7	60	6	17.9
3	Iowa	7	0	36	46	10	18.7
4	Clemson	6	0	40	41	13	19.6
5	Oklahoma	5	1	31	26	9	20.3
6	Utah	6	0	6	75	54	20.6
7	Stanford	5	1	21	17	41	20.7
8	TCU	7	0	52	2	49	22.6
9	Ohio State	7	0	68	20	8	23.9
10	Notre Dame	6	1	23	8	69	24.0
11	Florida	6	1	12	76	29	24.9
12	Florida State	6	0	66	16	30	25.9
13	Oklahoma State	6	0	62	39	21	26.7
14	California	5	1	29	19	66	26.9
15	Texas A&M	5	1	26	35	57	27.0
16	Georgia	5	2	46	18	23	31.9
17	Michigan State	7	0	57	50	58	32.1
18	UCLA	4	2	17	33	38	33.0
19	Pittsburgh	5	1	37	78	37	33.4
20	Michigan	5	2	30	93	2	35.0
21	Baylor	6	0	103	1	34	35.4
	Mississippi	5	2	67	7	17	35.4
23	BYU	5	2	13	68	72	36.6
24	Mississippi State	5	2	56	22	33	36.7
25	Boise State	5	2	59	52	4	37.7

Week 7 - Spartans-Wolves Face Off in Michigan State Championship, Hooisers in Must-Win Mode vs. New Jersey State, and the Coach-Less Men of Troy Visit South Bend

Last Week Straight Up: 6-1
Last Week ATS: 3-4
YTD Straight Up: 28-5
YTD ATS: 18-15
 

Michigan State at Michigan (-8)

I am calling an upset right off the bat this week, gang.  My numbers lean Michigan, but I am venturing off the spreadsheet (and maybe off the reservation?) on this one.  Yes, UM is off three consecutive shut-outs and yes, the inevitable resuscitation of the Michigan football program under Jim Harbaugh looks to be a couple years ahead of schedule, but there are a few checks you have to put in the Spartacus column in this one if you’re honest with yourself.  And the main one, from my view, is Michigan State has a major QB advantage in this game.  Michigan’s Jake Rudock is an adequate FBS game-manager, at best, whereas Michigan State’s Connor Cook is a legitimate NFL prospect.  Rudock isn’t asked to do that much for the Wolverines, he rarely puts pressure on the back half of defenses via the deep ball, but despite that he’s managed to toss 6 INTs in 6 starts this year vs. only 5 TDs (12 TDs vs. 2 INTs for Cook).

Few teams, if any, are having any success running the football on Michigan this season and if MSU stubbornly insists on stone age “establish the run” thinking on Saturday, they will be playing right into Harbaugh’s hands.  Rather, if they move the chains early in the air, they just might be able get the vaunted Michigan defense on its heels a bit and calm down the riotous Big House crowd.  As loyal reader Mike Wagner pointed out to me this week, Michigan’s secondary hasn’t really been tested this year.  I suspect that will change on Saturday.

Michigan’s defense is getting a lot of well-deserved credit right now, but the better offense will win this football game.  Take the points.  And if you are feeling bold, take the Spartans.  I am. 

But I’m afraid it’s not all not peaches and Paul Bunyan Trophies, Spartan fans.  From the “you heard it here first” department, prepare yourselves for some Mark Dantonio-to-South Carolina chatter any minute now.  Before you laugh, pound your Green & White chests, and shout “NO WAY,” check his diploma.

 

Michigan State 24 Michigan 18
Michigan State win probability: 26%
Michigan State cover probability: 44%

 

West Virginia at Baylor (-17)

Another game where I’m going to deviate a little from my laptop.  It is tough to model general team health into a football game selection algorithm, and because of that (specifically the health of the West Virginia secondary) I suspect Baylor will push the Mountaineers past the spread in this one.  WVA lost safety Karl Joseph for the season two weeks ago to a knee injury and while they were able to hang with Oklahoma State in a tight loss last weekend without their senior leader, containing the Bears and their fast break passing game without Joseph will be an entirely different matter.

My Numbers say Baylor wins but doesn’t cover.  I agree with the “win” part, but will nudge that a little further and say the Bears, behind the most efficient offense in the county, will roll the injury-depleted ‘Neers just like they have rolled everyone else to date.

Baylor 48 West Virginia 24
Baylor win probability: 85%
Baylor cover probability: 40%

 

Louisville at Florida State (-7)

Too much Dalvin Cook for the Cardinals.  The Seminoles, for all their flash and annually elevated team speed, are quietly leaning on an old-fashioned, grinding running game this season.  Louisville’s D was better a year ago & won’t be enough on Saturday. 

Florida State 27 Louisville 18

Florida State win probability: 74%
Florida State cover probability: 60%

 

Florida at LSU (-7.5)

The suspension of Florida QB Will Grier weighs heavily over this one.  While I believe UF is still a viable SEC East factor, losing Grier for this particular trip to the Bayou will be too much to overcome. 

The Gators will hang around enough to cover -7.5 but not enough to knock off the Tigers and Heisman front-runner Leonard Fournette in Death Valley.

LSU 24 Florida 18

LSU win probability: 56%
LSU cover probability: 39%

 

Rutgers at Indiana (-7)
 
The Hoosiers may very well have to have this one if they’re going to get to the ever-elusive six win mark this season and break their 8 year bowl-less streak (8 years that feels more like 80).  My Numbers say they will and I agree.  In breathless IU fashion, as usual.

Indiana 31 Rutgers 27

Indiana win probability: 63%
Indiana cover probability: 48%

 

Alabama (-4) at Texas A&M

Don’t bet this one.  Watch it, but don’t bet it.  The model likes Alabama in this visit to College Station.  And while I agree that the Tide will come in, I don’t think they’ll “roll.”  I’m calling the dreaded push here.

Alabama 28 Texas A&M 24

Alabama win probability: 70%
Alabama cover probability: 60%

 

Iowa (-2.5) at Northwestern

No respect from Vegas for the Purple Cats in this one.  Or not enough customers willing to walk off the Strip and plunk down cash on Northwestern’s sputtering offense?  My Numbers show a slight lean towards the home team in this one, but I’m not agreeing until I see more from NU when they have the football.  I think the Hawkeyes win a tight one in Evanston on Saturday.

Iowa 18 Northwestern 15

Iowa win probability: 51%
Iowa cover probability: 44%

 

Northern Illinois (-15) at Miami-OH

NIU’s offense got a little mojo back vs. Ball State last weekend and will keep the train rolling in Oxford, OH.  Take the Huskies and lay the 15 point hammer.

Northern Illinois 38 Miami-OH 20
Northern Illinois win probability: 89%
Northern Illinois cover probability: 60%

 

*** Eastern Michigan at Toledo (-25.5) ***   My Numbers Week 7 Best Bet!!

The Rockets are the best team in the country that most know nothing about, from the MAC 10 or otherwise, which is why you read My Numbers, loyal subscribers!!!  Give the points and side with My Numbers' best bet.  Toledo by a bundle.

Toledo 42 Eastern Michigan 13

Toledo win probability: 98%
Toledo cover probability: 70%

 

USC at Notre Dame (-6.5)

Good thing Pat Hayden authorized a $1MM payment for a national search firm to help him lock in on the now-departed Steve Sarkisian.  It bought him some lame cover, at least.   I still can’t help but wonder, as callous as it sounds, if the tabloid-like narrative surrounding Sarkisian would be spilling out the way it is if USC was playing up to their talent, was 6-0, and in the Top 5 like everyone figured.  I'll go a little farther and say that the booze, etc., is a convenient excuse for USC to bag a coach who was completely in over his head from the get-go and never should have been hired in the first place. Nothing about Sarkisian’s alcohol issues are really news. Those stories have been floating around forever.  He’s the same guy and same coach he was when he was racking up unimpressive 7-win seasons at Washington.  So shame on Hayden.  I though Rhodes Scholars were a little more clever than this.  That’s two consecutive head football coaches hired by Pat Hayden and fired mid-season by Pat Hayden, for those of you scoring at home.

The Irish took care of business at home against Navy last weekend and the embarrassing spanking that USC put on a depleted Notre Dame defense a year ago will be fresh in the minds of everyone wearing a gold hat Saturday night.  Given how quickly the last USC game spun out of control for the Irish, I have felt all year that this game was one that Brian Kelly would be pointing to with this particular group of players.  The proverbial kitchen sink game, if you will.  And I still feel that way, despite the clamoring and distracting noise from the Sarkisian Circus.  If it is in the Irish arsenal, we will see it on Saturday.

I think six-points-and-a-hook is pricy, but My Numbers say Notre Dame will still be alive in the national CFB playoff hunt after this game.

Notre Dame 31 USC 27

Notre Dame win probability: 63%
Notre Dame cover probability: 49%