Week 14 - Top 25 - In lock-step with what the committee will likely share on Tuesday night . . . with one controversial exception!!!!

I suspect the CFB Playoff Committee will have Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Iowa in some order in their "big four" on Tuesday night with Michigan State (conveniently) slotted #5.  Yes, it will just so happen that Iowa and MSU will be #4 and #5...oh the magic of math.  Well, that mathematical slight of hand / book cooking aside, My Numbers agree on three of those four this week, putting Oklahoma in the pole position interestingly enough, and they likewise agree that the 4th entry should come from the Big Ten.  But we probably don't agree on which Big 10 team.  The committee is going to give us Iowa.  But I believe Ohio State's full season body of work is better than either Iowa's or Michigan State's.

Oh the outrage!!!!  But, but, but,...   Yeah, I know.  MSU beat Ohio State.  And if I was running My Numbers on that particular, one-game MSU-OSU season, Michigan State would be "in" before Ohio State without question.  But what I'm interested in here is the overall W/L percentage of teams, their overall strength of schedule, and how they played...overall.  In my humble opinion, that is a better way of coming up with the best four teams at any particular moment in time. 

Controversial?  Yes.  Defendable by data that I'm happy to share?  Also yes.  Can the committee say the same thing?

And taking this one step further, I strongly suspect that Ohio State will be the 4th team invited to the 2015-16 CFB Playoff, should Clemson or Alabama lose in their respective conference title game next weekend.  Why?  Recall your recent history, loyal reader.  The committee was infatuated with Ohio State throughout this process, at every step and well before the Buckeyes sent a clear and emphatic, ass-stomping message to everyone from an undisclosed Ann Arbor post office last weekend.  And recall your CFB history, specifically those times where "head-to-head" results ended up meaning a lot less in deciding national championships than many (most?) expected:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Florida_State_vs._Notre_Dame_football_game

"But we have a playoff now.  We have a committee.  That will never happen again!"

Not so fast my friend...

	team	W	L	SOS	OEFF	DEFF	MN Rating
1	Oklahoma	11	1	20	9	11	8.2
2	Alabama	11	1	5	53	2	11.5
3	Clemson	12	0	47	22	10	13.7
4	Ohio State	11	1	61	27	5	17.0
5	TCU	10	2	36	11	37	18.5
6	North Carolina	11	1	63	2	40	19.0
7	Notre Dame	10	2	19	5	64	19.2
	Florida State	10	2	57	19	12	19.2
9	Ole Miss	9	3	22	8	23	19.8
10	Iowa	12	0	62	43	18	21.0
11	Baylor	9	2	58	1	32	24.2
12	Oklahoma State	10	2	37	20	62	24.3
13	Stanford	10	2	16	21	85	24.8
14	LSU	8	3	8	24	39	28.8
15	Georgia	9	3	59	37	13	29.2
16	Michigan State	11	1	53	63	54	29.8
17	Florida	10	2	46	100	7	30.0
18	Michigan	9	3	42	72	6	31.0
19	Houston	11	1	94	28	57	31.3
20	Oregon	9	3	25	4	100	32.5
21	Northwestern	10	2	44	120	8	33.2
	BYU	9	3	67	36	30	33.2
23	Western Kentucky	10	2	107	3	63	33.3
24	UCLA	8	4	33	34	25	33.8
25	Appalachian State	9	2	126	13	16	34.8

Week 13 - Top 25 - Sooners Charging, Irish Hanging On, and a Cold-Hearted View of America's Team...Michigan State

It is going to be VERY interesting to see how the CFB Playoff Committee viewed last week's games!!!

Right now, My Numbers have Alabama as the #1 seed based on the Tide's Top 10 schedule strength and what has become the most efficient defense in the country.  Yes, 'Bama took a week off vs. Charleston Southern, but who in the SEC didn't last weekend? 

Oklahoma got a scare but held on to beat TCU and continued their climb up the My Numbers leader board this week, now all the way up to #2.  No two ways about it, my formula really likes the Sooners. 

Clemson slides a notch to #3 off a sloppy, 4-turnover win over Wake Forest.

And speaking of sloppy, Notre Dame holds on to the #4 spot this week despite a hard-on-the-eyes win over a Boston College team that wouldn't win the MAC this year.  I strongly suspect that My Numbers would lean Oklahoma over Notre Dame when the dust settles, should both teams win out.

But My Numbers  are of a different mind set than the AP Poll regarding large, Midwestern state, land grant college football teams.  My Numbers weren't impressed with Iowa beating yet another Big 10 bottom-feeder (Purdue) and have actually shoved the Hawkeyes down a rung or two the past few weeks despite the gaudy 11-0 record (Why?  Overall schedule. Check the fine print.  The SOS column.).  Similarly, My Numbers only bumped Michigan State up a couple spots this week despite the dramatic win over Ohio State.  The eye test / one-game-sample contingent will cry to the heavens over the injustice of MSU being rated so low, particularly those wearing green and white.  And I get it.  All I'll say is we're all about the full body of work here.  If you want soft, squishy, non-math, opinion-based polls rather than cold-hearted metrics, that stuff is easy to find.  :)

I will say this, Spartan fans:  I suspect you'll be a lot happier with the treatment you'll get from the committee on Tuesday night, particularly the sliding (if not completely different) measurement scale that group uses from team-to-team...   OK, all kidding aside, congrats are due to MSU for the huge win in the Horsehoe.  There obviously is a lot to be said for teams (and coaches!) that find ways to win football games regardless of venue and circumstance, and simple spreadsheet approaches like mine will never be able to fully quantify the "it" factor that some teams have and others don't.  Once I crack that, I'll quit my day job for sure.  In the meantime, that is why committees of experts are necessary to sort this stuff out. 

Hell, as long as the Spartans can keep on winning games that they don't have a lead in at any point in regulation, they're going to be just fine!!

rank	team	W	L	SOS	OEFF	DEFF	MN Rating	Last Week
1	Alabama	10	1	8	52	1	11.1	1
2	Oklahoma	10	1	32	12	11	13.7	3
3	Clemson	11	0	47	25	8	18.6	2
4	Notre Dame	10	1	29	9	58	19.1	4
5	Ohio State	10	1	61	29	5	23.6	5
6	Ole Miss	8	3	36	8	18	24.3	12
7	Stanford	9	2	24	22	61	25.1	10
8	Oklahoma State	10	1	49	21	52	25.7	9
9	Iowa	11	0	62	43	15	26.4	7
10	North Carolina	10	1	68	2	40	26.7	15
11	TCU	9	2	44	5	53	27.3	11
12	Florida State	9	2	59	16	19	28.3	13
13	Oregon	8	3	15	4	101	29.6	22
14	Baylor	9	1	65	1	42	29.9	18
15	LSU	7	3	7	19	50	29.9	8
15	UCLA	8	3	41	32	23	29.9	21
17	Michigan	9	2	50	62	3	30.0	16
17	Mississippi State	8	3	37	23	41	30.0	20
19	Florida	10	1	52	91	7	30.1	6
20	Michigan State	10	1	48	71	51	32.4	23
21	Georgia	8	3	55	38	14	33.4	19
22	Northwestern	9	2	31	119	9	33.6	24
23	Utah	8	3	14	93	49	34.6	17
24	USC	7	4	9	20	79	36.0	14
25	Pittsburgh	8	3	25	64	76	37.4	31

Week 12 - Evanston Purple Cats Head North to Face Bucky Badger, Irish Wear Green and Hope to be Monsters at Fenway, Horned Frogs On Fumes in Norman, and Hoosiers' Backs Against the Wall vs. Turtles

Last Week SU: 6-0

Last Week ATS: 3-3
YTD SU: 58-11
YTD ATS: 34-37

 

Northwestern at Wisconsin (-10.5)

Both of these teams lead with their defenses, both have won their share of close games this season, both enter this game playing about as well as they’ve played all season, and both had B10 West title aspirations this summer . . . until they both lost to Iowa. 

This series tends to lean towards the home team and My Numbers like Bucky.

Wisconsin 28 Northwestern 13

Wisconsin win probability: 82%
Wisconsin cover probability: 61%

 

Indiana at Maryland (-2.5)

The calculus is unfortunately simple for the Hoosiers at this point.  Lose one more and stay home for the holidays and out of the bowl picture for the 8^th straight year.  The Terrapins are a turnover machine and they struggle mightily in the passing game.  IU, on the other hand, can score on anybody but can’t come up with defensive stops when the 4^th quarter money is on the table. 

IU, who may own the dubious title of best 6-loss team in the country, has gone toe-to-toe with all B10 big boys all season, taking Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan down to the wire.  The Hoosiers are better than their record, but they haven’t been a good road team under Wilson and will figure out a way to make this one a dramatic, white-knuckler despite

I’ll take the points.

Indiana 38 Maryland 35

Indiana win probability: 39%
Indiana cover probability: 45%

 

Michigan State at Ohio State (-13)

The Spartans need a healthy Connor Cook firing on all cylinders in this one and I’m sure they’re going to have that.  Model leaning hard towards the Buckeyes here and I’m afraid I agree.  I think OSU is better on both sides of the ball and I suspect the Green & White is walking into an ambush in this one.

Ohio State 34 Michigan State 17

Ohio State win probability: 83%
Ohio State cover probability: 57%

 

TCU at Oklahoma (-11.5)

The inflated line suggests Vegas knows more about Travon Boykin’s health than you or I and, besides Boykin, the Frogs limp into this one with an injury list stretching into a second paragraph. 

I think Texas Christian is out of gas and out of bullets.  Sooners roll, again, and pound even harder on the CFB Playoff back door.

Oklahoma 45 TCU 27
Oklahoma win probability: 88%
Oklahoma cover probability: 68%

 

Notre Dame (-16.5) at Boston College

 

Fenway Park visit for the green clad Irish.  BC is statistically one of the best defensive teams in the country (albeit vs. a pretty light schedule) and I suspect the Eagles will have memorized the Notre Dame-Temple film and will, similar to the Owls, sell out completely in an attempt slow or stop the Irish running game.  A key here will be giving DKizer and the Irish receivers enough time to make Boston College stop the run AND the pass.

Always a potential hiccup.  Always respected.  Always a worry.  But not this time, BC.

Notre Dame 27 Boston College 17
Notre Dame win probability 89%
Notre Dame cover probability: 56%

 

Charlotte at Kentucky (-24.5)

SEC-weary Blue Cats have been waiting for one of these.

Kentucky 48 Charlotte 17

Kentucky win probability 94%
Kentucky cover probability: 54%
 
Illinois at Minnesota (-5) 

The Illini are bowl eligible with a win whereas the Gophers need to win this one and win next week at home vs. Wisconsin to get to six wins.  Very similar efficiency profiles for both teams here…expect a lower scoring, defensive affair.

Model likes Illinois plus the 5 but not straight up.  A field goal will probably decide it. 

Minnesota 24 Illinois 23

Minnesota win probability: 54%
Minnesota cover probability: 43%

 

Michigan (-4) at Penn State

And I leave you with an upset.  The Michigan Harbaughs had been holding teams to 80 yards rushing per game until Indiana got 140 last week…in the first half.  The Wolves are not invincible by any stretch.  PSU’s defense is similarly stingy. 

Don’t say you weren’t warned.

Penn State 29 Michigan 26 2 OT

Penn State win probability: 49%
Penn State cover probability: 60%

Week 12 Top 25 - Sooners Burst Baylor's Bubble and Crash the Big 4 Party

Three of the top four spots in the My Numbers ratings this week are the same as last week, but LSU's 2nd loss dropped the Tigers off the front page.  The Oklahoma Sooners, off their big road win at Baylor, are emphatically filling that void right now.

Oklahoma, to me, has the most impressive offensive/defensive efficiency balance of any team in the country right now.  If the playoffs started next weekend and I was "in the room" today, I would feel obligated to make a case for the Sooners based on My Numbers.

Other interesting things to note this week...

> The unbeaten Big 10 teams (Ohio State and Iowa) are charging up the My Numbers ratings and, along with Florida, are loudly knocking on the 'Big 4' back door.  I am finding it VERY interesting how closely aligned my system is with the CFB Playoff Committee's output right now, for the most part, but how we disagree on Ohio State.  In my opinion, the committee is using a pretty easy to de-code combination of W/L record and schedule strength to rank MOST teams, but they are applying a completely different set of criteria and rules for the Buckeyes.  OSU is clearly getting credit from the committee for winning the title last year and are benefiting from a non-measurable, inconsistent, "eye test" factor (or factors).   No other way to explain it.

I predict that the committee's Top 4 on Tuesday night will be Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and...Oklahoma.  While My Numbers still place Notre Dame in the #4 slot, I suspect the committee will have other ideas this week.  We'll see.

> While I have the Buckeyes out of the Top 4, as I have all season, they have moved up to #5 now and their strength of schedule will improve dramatically this week (vs. Michigan State) and next week (at Michigan)...and after the B10 title game if they win both of those.  Even stubbornly unbiased systems like mine may have a hard time denying the Buckeyes a shot at defending their title when the dust finally settles.

> Oklahoma State fans are screaming like horse-less Cowboys right now but, truth be told, I think there are four different three-loss teams that are every bit as good as the 'Pokes (Ole Miss, Georgia, Mississippi State, and UCLA).

	team	W	L	SOS	OEFF	DEFF	MN Rating	last week
1	Alabama	9	1	3	51	3	11.1	1
2	Clemson	10	0	34	30	14	16.4	2
3	Oklahoma	9	1	44	9	6	17.3	5
4	Notre Dame	9	1	25	7	60	19.3	4
5	Ohio State	10	0	67	24	5	23.7	8
6	Florida	9	1	31	83	7	24.3	8
7	Iowa	10	0	55	46	19	25.4	10
8	LSU	7	2	18	17	43	25.7	4
9	Oklahoma State	10	0	58	22	40	25.9	12
10	Stanford	8	2	28	25	53	26.4	6
11	TCU	9	1	57	4	51	26.7	7
12	Ole Miss	7	3	37	10	18	27.9	13
13	Florida State	8	2	53	19	26	28.9	19
14	USC	7	3	20	18	54	29.3	15
15	North Carolina	9	1	73	2	42	29.7	14
16	Michigan	8	2	56	52	2	31.0	21
17	Utah	8	2	19	80	52	31.6	11
18	Baylor	8	1	76	1	36	32.6	16
19	Georgia	7	3	45	37	16	33.7	24
20	Mississippi State	7	3	42	31	33	34.4	18
21	UCLA	7	3	50	28	29	35.7	17
22	Oregon	7	3	23	11	103	36.1	29
23	Michigan State	9	1	60	60	64	37.4	21
24	Northwestern	8	2	43	116	11	37.7	23
25	Arkansas	6	4	7	13	107	39.7	39
	also:
		W	L	SOS	OEFF	DEFF	MN Rating	last week
52	Northern Illinois	7	3	104	55	23	54.1	57
60	Illinois	5	5	35	111	24	57.1	54
77	Indiana	4	6	38	44	117	69.0	72
104	Purdue	2	8	33	114	98	87.7	105
114	Ball State	3	7	89	110	116	98.4	121