Last Week SU: 6-0
Last Week ATS: 3-3 YTD SU: 58-11
YTD ATS: 34-37
Both of these teams
lead with their defenses, both have won their share of close games this season,
both enter this game playing about as well as they’ve played all season, and
both had B10 West title aspirations this summer . . . until they both lost to
Iowa.
This series tends to
lean towards the home team and My Numbers like Bucky.
Wisconsin 28 Northwestern
13
Wisconsin win
probability: 82%Wisconsin cover probability: 61%
The calculus is unfortunately simple for the Hoosiers at this point. Lose one more and stay home for the holidays and out of the bowl picture for the 8th straight year. The Terrapins are a turnover machine and they struggle mightily in the passing game. IU, on the other hand, can score on anybody but can’t come up with defensive stops when the 4th quarter money is on the table.
IU, who may own the
dubious title of best 6-loss team in the country, has gone toe-to-toe with all B10
big boys all season, taking Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan down to the wire. The Hoosiers are better than their record,
but they haven’t been a good road team under Wilson and will figure out a way
to make this one a dramatic, white-knuckler despite
I’ll take the points.
Indiana 38 Maryland
35
Indiana win
probability: 39%Indiana cover probability: 45%
The Spartans need a
healthy Connor Cook firing on all cylinders in this one and I’m sure they’re
going to have that. Model leaning hard
towards the Buckeyes here and I’m afraid I agree. I think OSU is better on both sides of the
ball and I suspect the Green & White is walking into an ambush in this one.
Ohio State 34
Michigan State 17
Ohio State win
probability: 83%Ohio State cover probability: 57%
The inflated line
suggests Vegas knows more about Travon Boykin’s health than you or I and,
besides Boykin, the Frogs limp into this one with an injury list stretching
into a second paragraph.
I think Texas
Christian is out of gas and out of bullets.
Sooners roll, again, and pound even harder on the CFB Playoff back door.
Oklahoma 45 TCU 27
Oklahoma win probability: 88%
Oklahoma cover probability: 68%
Always a potential
hiccup. Always respected. Always a worry. But not this time, BC.
Notre Dame 27 Boston College 17
Notre Dame win probability 89%
Notre Dame cover probability: 56%
SEC-weary Blue Cats have
been waiting for one of these.
Kentucky 48 Charlotte
17
Kentucky win
probability 94%Kentucky cover probability: 54%
Illinois at Minnesota (-5)
The Illini are bowl
eligible with a win whereas the Gophers need to win this one and win next week
at home vs. Wisconsin to get to six wins.
Very similar efficiency profiles for both teams here…expect a lower
scoring, defensive affair.
Model likes Illinois plus the 5 but not straight up. A field goal will probably decide it.
Minnesota 24 Illinois
23
Minnesota win
probability: 54%Minnesota cover probability: 43%
Michigan (-4) at Penn
State
And I leave you with an upset. The Michigan Harbaughs had been holding teams
to 80 yards rushing per game until Indiana got 140 last week…in the first
half. The Wolves are not invincible by any
stretch. PSU’s defense is similarly stingy.
Penn State 29
Michigan 26 2 OT
Penn State win probability:
49%Penn State cover probability: 60%
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