Last Week Straight
Up: 5-0
Last Week ATS: 1-4YTD Straight Up: 46-7
YTD ATS: 29-25
Notre Dame (-9) at
Pittsburgh
My Numbers give the slightest of leans to the Irish against the spread in this one in the Steel City, but qualitative, “Pitt always gives Notre Dame trouble” type factors give me pause. Defenses are similar, but the Notre Dame offense is the difference here. The coached-up Temple Owls completely sold out to slow down Irish RB C. J. Prosise last weekend, daring QB DeShone Kizer to beat them with his arm and his legs…which he did. It will be interesting to see which poison Narduzzi chooses for the Panther defense this weekend.
Irish? Yes. Irish minus the points? I don’t think so.
Notre Dame 31 Pittsburgh 27
Notre Dame win
probability: 74%
Notre Dame cover
probability: 52%
LSU at Alabama (-6)
The CFB Playoff
committee is getting plenty of grief about including Alabama in their first-pass
Top 4, but My Numbers fail to see the controversy. I have a lot more heart burn over Ohio
State’s inclusion right now, actually. Alabama
is 4-1 against Top 30 teams to date and I suspect this SEC West “play-in” game
will quiet the “why Alabama?” clamor, temporarily anyway.
Give the +6 to the
Bayou Fournettes, as good as they’ve been, and take the home favorite Crimsons here. And then make room on the Roll Tide bandwagon
for a fresh batch of converts.
Alabama 30 LSU 21
Alabama win
probability: 72%
Alabama cover
probability: 60%
Arizona at USC (-17)
*** My Numbers Lock of
the Week ***The fact that the Trojans, who are quietly very much alive in the Pac 12 South race, have a really good offense and have played a really tough schedule has been lost in the Sarkisian & Hayden Travelling Circus this year, I believe. The Arizona Wild-RichRods won’t come close to solving the Men of Troy this weekend.
Lock it up.
USC 48 Arizona 21
USC win probability: 94%
USC cover probability: 69%
Iowa (-7) at Indiana
The Hawkeyes are steam rolling toward a B10 title game berth while the annual Hoosier quest for an elusive 6th win & bowl eligibility continues. Indiana has lost four straight, but enters this one off a bye and re-inserts leading rusher Jordan Howard into the lineup off the extra week of rest.
The model says Iowa
will be too much for the Hoosiers in Bloomington, but I’m saying “not so fast
my friend.” No model is perfect. That’s why they’re called models!
Upset special!!
Indiana 34 Iowa 31
Indiana win
probability: 22% Indiana cover probability: 38%
If recent history is
any guide, MSU will figure out a way to make this one closer than
necessary. But Nebraska’s issues in the
secondary figure to be exposed even further by Spartan QB Connor Cook in this one (17 TD
passes vs. only 2 INTs, 2,070 passing yards, 17 TD).
Tough times in
Lincoln, for sure. And about to get
tougher.
Michigan State 35 Nebraska 24
Michigan State win probability: 61%
Michigan State cover probability: 48%
Huge number for the
#1 ranked Tigers (#1 per this week’s CFB Playoff Committee ratings AND My
Numbers anyway). My model says yes,
Clemson wins the annual battle for ACC supremacy this year. But not by two dozen + a hook.
Take the points &
the ‘Noles, regardless of who they start at QB.
Clemson 38 Florida State 28
Clemson win probability: 72%
Clemson cover probability: 44%
Illinois (-1) at
Purdue
The model isn’t much
help here vs. the spread, seeing more or less a coin toss outcome. So I’ll break the tie by saying I got the
distinct impression last weekend that the injury-ravaged Fighting Illini were
playing on fumes against Penn State. And
while Illinois may have a better roster, top to bottom, than Purdue right now,
I’m wondering if they have anything left in the tank?
The Boilers get their
second win in a row at Ross-Ade, in razor-thin fashion. Would a mini-winning streak be enough to save
Hazell? Will a year-end swoon crush
Cubit?
Purdue 23 Illinois
20, OT
Purdue win
probability: 44%Purdue cover probability: 48%
The Gators, a win
away from locking down the SEC East race, will shutout the turnover prone Commodores. Write it down.
Florida 30 Vanderbilt
0
Florida win
probability: 94%Florida cover provability: 60%
PSU QB
Christian Hackenberg’s play has improved in lock step with answers the Nitts are
finally finding along their offensive line (12 TD passes, 0 INTs in the last 6
games). Northwestern is bowl
eligible for the 6th time in 8 seasons, they lean heavily on the 3rd
best rushing attack in the B10, and their defense has kept them every game but one this season.
Expect a low-scoring, defensive
affair between two pretty similar football teams in Evanston on Saturday. First
team to miss a FG loses.
Penn State 20
Northwestern 17
Penn State win
probability: 54%Penn State cover probability: 59%
Two teams heading in
opposite directions. One running, one
plodding. UT blasted Kentucky last
weekend 52-21, scoring almost every way imaginable (including kickoff and punt
returns for TDs) whereas the Gamecocks, who are 1-5 in conference, dropped a
7-pointer to Texas A&M.
The Volunteers are
figuring it out. I wouldn't want to run into them in a random bowl game this year.
Tennessee 35 South
Carolina 17
Tennessee win
probability: 89%Tennessee cover probability: 57%
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