Week 5 - "Pay No Attention to that Man Behind the Curtain..."

Here's a closer look at the "raw" strength of schedule (SOS) and O/D efficiency rankings that go into the My Numbers Top 25 and a comparison of a few teams near and dear to the hearts of a couple loyal readers.  If your team is in single digits in any category, that's a good thing (Stanford's SOS, for example) and if you're in single digits in more than one category, even better (LSU's SOS and rushing ypa rank, for example).  If your team, on the other hand, is in triple digits in any category, that's a bad thing (Northwestern's passing ypa, MSU's passing ypa against, for example).  W/L pct rank and SOS are given double weight in the rating calculation

Volatility, especially early in the season, is a given with an approach like this.  Don't sweat the details, Spartans and Wildcats.  It's too early.  You're both undefeated and off to good and possibly historically good seasons.  Keeping winning, and everything will take care of itself! 

Winning trumps everything in the end.  Before the end, we build models. 

'My Numbers' rank		W	L	WL pct rnk	sos	opass	dpass	orush	drush	'My Numbers' rating
1	LSU	3	0	1	5	106	12	4	36	21.3
2	Notre Dame	4	0	1	42	22	41	6	61	27.0
3	Georgia	4	0	1	90	4	16	3	27	29.0
4	Alabama	3	1	30	14	107	11	30	3	29.9
5	Stanford	3	1	30	7	17	46	65	45	30.9
9	Iowa	4	0	1	72	26	44	44	10	33.8
21	Northwestern	4	0	1	43	112	4	63	60	40.9
UR	Michigan State	4	0	1	64	41	106	84	32	49.1

Week 5 - Top 25

Some expected small sample size churn and a few developing trends in the My Numbers Top 25 this week:

LSU moved up a few slots to take a rather commanding lead on top of the ratings.  While the Tigers weren't completely dominant last week at Syracuse, the model clearly likes their strength of schedule to date, their seriously imposing ground game, and impressive work in the secondary.  If this were a September-only sport, I would put LSU in the 4-team playoff and give the Heisman Trophy to LSU RB Leonard Fournette.

The model, however, wasn't too impressed with Northwestern's sleep-walking victory over visiting middle-of-the-pack MAC-10er, Ball State.  The Purple Cats slid 11 spots to #21 this week.  A passing game stuck in neutral may be the biggest issue in Evanston right now.

Many were surprised by the Michigan Harbaugh's dismantling of BYU in the Big House last weekend.  My Numbers bumped the Wolverines all the way into the Top 10 because of it.  Perhaps that is a little high, but UM's tight loss at Utah to open the season doesn't look so bad now, does it?  Wasn't all this supposed to take a year or two?

And speaking of the Utes, the Reign of King Duck officially ended in the PAC-12 after Utah walked into Eugene and pulled feathers for four quarters on Saturday.  The balance of power in the conference is clearly shifting to the south...and east.  Utah and USC broke into the My Numbers Top 25 this week and UCLA held serve at #6 after rolling up 56 points at previously unbeaten Arizona.  I doubt if the Bruins will be underrated nationally much longer.  They look like a legitimate post-season threat, true frosh QB or not.

Still little or no love for Michigan State in the My Numbers ratings.  The KPIs just aren't there.  MSU beat another MAC opponent last weekend (Central Michigan) and have two more (Purdue and Rutgers...OK, MAC-like, then) before what is shaping up as an epic October showdown in Ann Arbor.  My Numbers disagree with the national polls on the Spartans more than any other team.  Am I wildly off base on the Green & White or am I on to something?  Is the truth somewhere in the middle?

Alabama (#4) and Stanford (#5) are clearly being rewarded here for who they've played and how they've played, despite the matching marks they share on the wrong side of the W/L column.

And finally, this week's My Numbers "completely under the radar" shout out goes to the all but nationally invisible yet 4-0 Iowa Hawkeyes, who have played pretty damn well to date, not that anyone outside of Iowa City has noticed.  Iowa leap-frogged 8 spots to #9 this week.

	team	W	L	'My Numbers' rating	last week
1	LSU	3	0	21.3	3
2	Notre Dame	4	0	27.0	2
3	Georgia	4	0	29.0	1
4	Alabama	3	1	29.9	7
5	Stanford	3	1	30.9	12
6	UCLA	4	0	31.6	6
7	Ole Miss	4	0	32.1	5
8	Ohio State	4	0	33.0	11
9	Iowa	4	0	33.8	17
10	Michigan	3	1	34.0	NR
11	Oklahoma	3	0	35.0	11
12	Clemson	3	0	35.6	15
13	Florida	4	0	36.5	13
14	Boise State	3	1	38.1	13
15	Florida State	3	0	38.8	9
16	Baylor	3	0	39.4	17
	Utah	4	0	39.4	NR
18	USC	3	1	39.8	NR
19	Mississippi State	3	1	40.3	NR
20	Texas A&M	4	0	40.6	16
21	Northwestern	4	0	40.9	10
22	West Virginia	3	0	43.5	25
23	Duke	3	1	43.9	NR
24	TCU	4	0	44.4	22
25	Houston	3	0	45.6	NR

Week 4

Last Week Straight Up: 6-0
Last Week ATS: 4-2
YTD Straight Up: 12-0
YTD ATS: 8-4


UMass at Notre Dame (-28.5)

Notre Dame's eye-opening defensive effort in their 30-22 throttling of media darling Georgia Tech last weekend, during which Tech really couldn't breathe offensively until the final 10 minutes, provided a clinic for those who wonder why every team doesn't run the seemingly unstoppable Ramblin' Wreck option offense.  A talented and disciplined defensive front seven makes any offense "stoppable," it would seem.  The Minutemen hung in until the waning seconds against a solid Temple team last weekend but were wiped out by Colorado in their opener.  They lack the horses to go toe-to-toe with the Gold Hats this Saturday.

So sure, everything points to the Irish in this one.  But I would be ignoring available data if I didn't mention that Notre Dame teams in the Kelly era have had a tendency to play below their ability in supposed "breathers" like this one.  The model say Irish here, not surprisingly, but I would be hesitant to pay the 28.5 point spread price.  There are times when it's OK to argue with the math.

Notre Dame 42 UMass 17
Notre Dame win probability: 98%
Notre Dame cover probability: 66%


Tennessee (-1.5) at Florida

A big one in the Swamp for both teams.  Rocky Top natives, stinging from the 2OT home loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago and the 17-point lead their beloved Volunteers coughed up in that one, are getting a little restless wondering when that first, program-defining big win will actually happen for Butch Jones and staff.  The Gators are winning with defense, while they search for stability at QB and along the offensive line, but UF will be down a starting corner due to suspension (as well as Treon Harris, part-time QB starter).  All-world Florida CB Vernon "Revis" Hargreaves III, who seems to make at least one huge and impactful play every time he steps on a football field, remains in the lineup, though, so half the field will be off-limits to the UT passing game at all times.

A tough one to call, using your gut or using a model. The team that wins the ground game tends to win this rivalry, and UT definitely has options in that regard (e.g., Jalen Hurd).  It seems the talking head concensus is leaning Tennessee here, but I suspect that Florida's highly recruited group of front seven defensive playmakers will be the story in this one.

It's going to be tight, but give me the point-and-the-hook and 80,000 chomping Gator fans on their home turf. 

Florida 20 Tennessee 17
Florida win probability: 49%
Florida cover probability: 54%


Indiana (-3.5) at Wake Forest

Kevin Wilson's Hoosiers clearly have a different spin on the B10 traditions of physical defense and power running offenses . . . more along the lines of a scoreboard lighting run/pass mix on offense and a hold on for dear life defense.  That approach will catch up to them sooner or later, but not before they grab their elusive 6th win and become bowl eligible this season (you heard that here first) and not before this weekend on Tobacco Road.  The Demon Deacons survived a tight one at Army, 17-14, on a last second FG last weekend and may have true frosh Kendall Hinton under center against IU due to starter John Wofford's bum ankle.  Indiana RB Jordan Howard leads the nation in rushing yards and QB Nate Sudfeld has more than moved on from a injured shoulder a year ago.  The model remains skeptical of IU's chances of covering -3.5 on the road at Wake, but I just don't think Deacs will be able to keep up with Cream & Crimson offense this weekend.  Ohio State next weekend?  Probably.  Wake Forest this weekend?  Nope.

It's been 25 years since Indiana started a football season 4-0.  That streak ends on Saturday afternoon Winston-Salem.

Indiana 30 Wake Forest 23
Indiana win probability: 59%
Indiana cover probability: 49%


UCLA (-3) at Arizona

Toughest game on the slate to call this weekend, in my opinion.  Major PAC 12 South and national implications here.  Both teams will be missing All American candidate linebackers (Scooby Wright for the Wildcats, Myles Jack for the Bruins) in a game that will very likely be decided by defense.  True freshman QB Josh "The Rosen One" Rosen had a rough outing vs. BYU last weekend (three first half INTs) but UCLA nevertheless survived, 24-23.  Arizona has been blowing out the Northern Arizona's of the world to open their season, so it's tough to get a complete read on the Cats just yet.  We'll know a lot more tomorrow night in the desert.

I think this one will be a thriller.  The model likes UCLA to win but not cover, but I'm going against the spreadsheet and taking home dog Cats (or home Cat dogs?) based on what I think will be Arizona's ability to run the football and move the chains against the Jack-less UCLA defense.  It's what Rich-Rod teams do.
 
Arizona 34 UCLA 31, OT
Arizona win probability: 44%
Arizona cover probability: 52%


Middle Tennessee State at Illinois (-5.5)

Bad feelings abound here, Illini faithful.  Is the beat up on the little guys-only reputation Illinois is earning fair, given last week's toe-stubbing loss at North Carolina, or is that single game sample a non-representative outlier?  The problem this week is MTSU is very likely two touchdowns better than the Kent State team that the Illini blew out two weeks ago and they would similarly crush Western Illinois, much like Illinois did in their opener.  The battle here will be strength on strength.  The Blue Raiders have what may be the most efficient pass offense in C-USA and Illinois is probably more  reliable in the secondary than anywhere else on the roster.  Something has to give.

No more blowout wins and over-matched cupcakes for the Orange and Blue.  Illinois wins this one in Urbana, but only by a FG.  I'll take MTSU and the points.

Illinois 31 Middle Tennessee State 28
Illinois win probability: 61%
Illinois cover probability: 49% 


Ball State at Northwestern (-19)

The Purple Cats are anything but pretty on offense, but are totally stingy on defense (only 16 total points given up, 6 forced TOVs).  The BSU defense will be just what the doctor ordered for Northwestern in Evanston on Saturday.

Northwestern 35 Ball State 10
Northwestern win probability: 94%
Northwestern cover probability: 63%





 

Week 4 - Top 25

We're only three weeks into the season so the data is REALLY thin, but here is a look at how 'My Numbers' sees the national Top 25 right this minute.  A little explanation...this isn't a poll.  There is no voting.  So this isn't any form of hopelessly biased beauty contest or faux tally of coaches / media member opinion.  Rather, my ranking is 100% based on data --- what is your record, who have you played, and how well have you played.  There is no advantage given to preseason expectations, last year's performance, or program history of any kind.  All that matters in the 'My Numbers' rating is 2015 won/lost percentage, strength of schedule, and offensive/defensive efficiency (rushing and passing yards per attempt).  The way teams should be rated!!

Some big surprises, for sure, and some confirmations. 

1. I think Georgia has been "that good" so far and I'm not surprised to see the Bulldogs sitting on top of a pure math rating right now. 

2. Northwestern cracks the My Numbers Top 10, riding an impressive defensive effort to start their season.  The Purple Cats are among the Top 5 in the country against the run and the pass right now. 

3. Michigan State, on the other hand, is 3-0 but was very fortunate to beat Oregon at home and are giving up 275 passing yards a game.  Yes, Spartacus is winning and the talking head press is pouring on the love, but I don't think they're really playing all that well...yet.  I do think there is a lot more there, though, and "small sample size" is probably affecting MSU's My Numbers rating as much or more than anyone.  Fear not, Green and White.  You'll climb in my ratings just like you climbed the "human" polls...after you appease the math gods in charge here!

4.  I'll likely get called a homer for the elevated Notre Dame rating, but there is no data dry-labbing going on for the Irish here.  The explanation is simple.  Notre Dame is the only team in the country with three wins over Power 5 conference schools, so strength of schedule pumping up the Irish My Numbers rating right now.  That and the impressive defensive showings against Texas and Georgia Tech. 

rank	team
1	Georgia
2	Notre Dame
3	Ohio State
4	LSU
5	Mississippi
6	UCLA
7	Alabama
8	Iowa
9	Florida State
10	Northwestern
11	Oklahoma
12	Stanford
13	Florida
	Boise State
15	Clemson
16	Texas A&M
17	Baylor
	Southern California
19	North Carolina
20	Kansas State
21	Oklahoma State
22	TCU
23	Memphis
24	Michigan State
25	West Virginia

Week 3

Last week straight up: 6-0
Last week ATS: 4-2


Georgia Tech (-3) at Notre Dame

My model isn't completely buying the Ramblin' Wreck-friendly, talking head narrative.  At least not in this spot.  And I'm not sure I am either.  Something is telling me there will be a little more to this game than whether or not Notre Dame can defend the option.  Like, for example, whether or not Georgia Tech can figure out how to stop the Irish.  Sure, Tech is "Navy with athletes" and the Notre Dame injury list seems to expand daily, but this game will be won or lost at the line of scrimmage.  And the Irish will have the upper hand at the point of attack all afternoon, regardless of which team has the football or who's lining up under center.

Granted, if Notre Dame plays like they did a week ago at UVa, particularly in short yardage and red zone situations on offense and with what at times looked like a step slow & out of position secondary on defense, Georgia Tech's shot at an attention-grabbing win in South Bend improves dramatically.  But I think the Irish, against their better judgment, looked ahead a little last week and it showed.  I expect a more focused-on-the-moment Notre Dame to run out of the tunnel on Saturday.

Getting young QBs ready for unexpected starts is a Brian Kelly specialty dating back to his Cincinnati Bearcat days.  DeShone Kizer won't be asked to do everything for Notre Dame on Saturday and because of that, he'll do enough. 

Take the points and the Irish, a rare home dog on Saturday in Notre Dame Stadium.

Notre Dame win probability: 66%
Notre Dame cover probability: 73%
Notre Dame 35 Georgia Tech 31


Illinois at North Carolina (-9.5)

The 2-0 Fighting Illini are already playing with house money, in my opinion.  Given the school-wide administrative meltdown in Urbana over the summer culminating in the dismissal of head coach Tim Beckman about 20 minutes before the season-opening kickoff, what does Illinois really have to lose in Chapel Hill on Saturday?  Or anywhere else this season?  Nothing.  And to me, the dirty little orange and blue secrets are that Bill Cubit is probably more qualified to be a head coach in the Big Ten than Beckman ever was and redshirt junior QB Wes Lunt may very well be one of the better QBs in the conference.  The trick is keeping Lunt healthy.  UNC has just 2 sacks in 2 games so far this season; watch how much pressure the Heels can or cannot put on Lunt in this one.  That fact alone could go a long way toward deciding this one.

Vegas expects a near double-digit home field win for the Tar Heels, fresh off a 53-14 pasting of North Carolina A&T.  I say not so fast my friend.  Sure, the Illini haven't been tested, schedule-wise, but averaging 140 yards rushing in their first two games under the circumstances would have showed me some mental toughness, even if they had played Rose-Hulman and Wabash to open their season.

Take the points.

Illinois win probability: 50%
Illinois cover probability: 72%
North Carolina 31 Illinois 27


Auburn at LSU (-7)

Even at 2-0, there may be nowhere to go but up for War Eagle.  Auburn managed to snatch a victory from the jaws of defeat against the juggernaut Jacksonville State Gamecocks a week ago, they have what so far looks like an over-hyped and possibly over-matched young QB under center, and they've somehow managed to turn the football over on 30% of their offensive possessions so far this season.  LSU, on the other hand, won a grinding, Les Miles-type opener at Mississippi State last week, they have NFL-level talent in their backfield (Leonard Fournette) which Auburn sorely lacks, and more stability at QB each passing day.  Add to that the simple but undeniable fact that the home team always wins this matchup and you get big pile of Bayou trouble for AU.

LSU by plenty.

LSU win probability: 76%
LSU cover probability: 62%
LSU 37 Auburn 21


Florida (-3) at Kentucky

The Wildcats haven't opened SEC play 2-0 since the Carter administration.  I don't think they will this year either, but the model isn't as confident.  Florida may be finding a long-sought answer at QB in Will Grier, but the Gators were sloppy, to put it kindly, in their 7-point home win over East Carolina last week (4-13 on third down conversions, 12 penalties for 105 yards, two turnovers, and a couple missed FGs).  That kind of performance this weekend in Lexington will earn the Gators another 3OT gut wrenching win, at best.  Or more likely an outright loss.  The Cats, on the other hand, broke an epic 22-game road losing streak in Columbia last week, with a 26-22 win over South Carolina.  UK lead 24-7 at the half in that one and never punted in the first half, but needed a some major defensive stands to hold on the for win; Kentucky held SC to 3 FGs on 3 2nd half trips inside the red zone.

Don't bet the farm either way in this one.

Florida win probability: 56%
Florida cover probability: 48%
Florida 24 Kentucky 23


Air Force at Michigan State (-26)

The Spartans are 2-0 and moving up into rarified air, poll-wise, but I would imagine Mark Dantonio had his team's undivided attention all week given how easily things could have turned out differently last Saturday night against Oregon.  And now, for their sins, MSU gets a "breather" against a typically scary & motivated service academy this week.  That's the kind of sub-optimal scheduling only a Notre Dame fan can appreciate!

Spartacus wins another one at home and moves to 3-0, but 26 points is too much lumber.

Michigan State win probability: 85%
Michigan State cover probability: 29%
Michigan State 41 Air Force 17


Western Kentucky at Indiana (-1.5)

Hoosiers are justifiably only a tick above a pick 'em at home vs. the C-USA Hilltoppers, who come to Bloomington off an impressive 41-38 home win over Louisiana Tech...impressive but costly.  WKU's leading rusher Leon Allen suffered a pretty awful leg injury in the Tech game and will miss the IU trip.  UAB transfer Jordan Howard enjoyed a 2nd straight 100 yard rushing day for Indiana last weekend, in IU's 36-22 win over Florida International, QB Nate Sudfeld played well, and the Indiana defense showed some backbone after their toe-stub of an opening night vs. Southern Illinois.

Western Kentucky is solid and easily the best team IU has played to date in 2015.  But Indiana is showing progress.  If the IU defense can keep WKU under 425 yards of total offense, the Hoosier offense will take care of the rest.

The model is more pessimistic about the Hoosiers than I am here.  I say Indiana in another track meet.

Indiana win probability: 50%        
Indiana cover probability: 46%
Indiana 42 Western Kentucky 38

Week 2

Notre Dame (-11.5) at Virginia

The Irish, off what may have been the most impressive opener in the Brian Kelly era in their 38-3 dismantling of Texas, travel to Charlottesville to face the Wahoos, 34-16 road losers at UCLA last week.  We like the Irish here as well, but not necessarily in blowout fashion.  The temptation to look ahead to the Georgia Tech matchup next week in South Bend will be great for the Irish, whereas the Cavs, who lost 5 of their last 6 a year ago including their 11th in a row to rival Virginia Tech, will be eyeing a nationally televised opportunity to pull head coach Mike London off the hot seat.  Virginia has some players and their passing game, in particular, will likely be a step up compared to what Notre Dame saw from toothless (armless?) Texas last Saturday.  But the UVa offensive line struggled at UCLA, so how the Cavaliers plan on dealing with Irish DT Sheldon Day and company is anyone's guess.  And the Cavalier linebackers are very young, which could be problematic given the wealth of playmakers in gold hats when Notre Dame has the ball.

Irish win.  Maybe not as comfortably as last weekend, maybe not 30-8 first down advantage comfortable, but  . . . Irish win.

Notre Dame 31 Virginia 20
Notre Dame win probability: 76%
Notre Dame cover probability: 49%


Florida International at Indiana (-7.5)

The Hoosiers escaped with their lives at home against Southern Illinois last Saturday, giving up 47 points but managing to steal a win only after the Salukis failed on a late 2-point conversion attempt.  Which begs the question, if an FCS team can come into your building and score almost 50, how many points will Ohio State pile up on the Cream & Crimson?  Or Michigan State?  Will there be enough juice in the scoreboard to count that high?  While the Indiana offense behind QB Nate Sudfeld, who looked no worse for last year's shoulder wear, moved the ball in the air (349 yards passing) and on the ground (246 yards rushing including 145 yards from UAB transfer Jordan Howard), their defense was the polar opposite...as usual.  SIU's 659 yards of total offense shattered the single-game school record for the Salukis.  Embarrassing for IU, for sure, but one sub-plot should be noted; IU suspended 9 players before the kickoff of the Southern Illinois game including 6 defensive players.  So the Hoosiers weren't at full speed last weekend, but they better get there soon.  Big Ten play beckons and the seat under head coach Kevin Wilson isn't getting any cooler.

Despite last week's cave-in, our lean is toward Indiana at home this weekend, even though the FIU (Figh-You?) Panthers and ex-Illinois head coach Ron Turner come in fresh off a 15-14 upset at Central Florida (FIU was a two touchdown dog in that one).  If IU gives up 32 first half points again this week, Wilson may not make it to Halloween with a head-set on in Bloomington.  And while I don't think they will melt down defensively two weeks in a row, the available qualitative data (i.e., a one game scare from a team tabbed to finish 7th in the Missouri Valley this season) suggests the Hoosiers will probably have their hands full again this weekend.  Tread cautiously here.  Bet the Over.

Indiana 37 Florida International 27
Indiana win probability: 68%
Indiana cover probability: 51%


Oregon at Michigan State (-3.5)

A huge opportunity and, perhaps, an early put-up-or-shut-up moment for Michigan State?  While there is no denying the impressive job Mark Dantonio and his staff have done in East Lansing, there is also no denying the gaudy defensive stats that MSU posted last year came mostly on the backs of weaker teams on their schedule.  The bigger boys they played (Oregon, Ohio State, and even Baylor in that freak show of a Cotton Bowl that MSU somehow came back to win) seemingly moved the ball up and down the field at will on Michigan State.  So what's the truth, Spartacus?  Oregon, on the other hand, gave up a surprising boatload of points to Eastern Washington in their season opening win over the Big Sky Eagles last weekend and no matter how good transfer QB Vernon Adams is, replacing Marcus "Best Duck to Ever Quack" Mariota is a tall order.

We're leaning plain Green and White in this one rather than Neon Green and Fluorescent Yellow with Feathered Trim.  In arguably one of the biggest home games in recent memory, the coached-up NFL talent MSU has on both sides of the ball will shine under the lights in Spartan Stadium on Saturday night.  Good things are in store for Michigan State this year.  Write it down.

Michigan State 38  Oregon 35
Michigan State win probability:  56%
Michigan State cover probability:  49%


Buffalo at Penn State (-20.5)

An embarrassing jolt and wake up call for the Nitts last and head coach James "Rah Rah" Franklin in their 27-10 loss at Temple last weekend.  PSU's offensive line will surely do a little better job keeping QB Christian Hackenberg on two feet this weekend; how could they do any worse?  Hackenburg was sacked 10 (10!!) times by the Owls last time out.  Ugly.  The SUNY-Buffalo Bulls, who couldn't stop the run last year and got head coach Jeff Quinn sacked mid-season because of it, throttled little brother Albany in their opener.  The Bulls step up in class a little this week and step into what should be a pretty bad spot for them given how listless and frankly (pardon the pun) unprepared Penn State looked in Week 1.

We'll say Penn State, with egos fully bruised, gets this one right.  But the offensive line issues that Temple exposed a week ago could cripple PSU once Big Ten plays starts.  Stay tuned.

Penn State 40 Buffalo 10
Penn State win probability: 90%
Penn State cover probability: 51%


East Carolina at Florida (-20.5)

The Gators topped East Carolina by a touchdown in the Birmingham Bowl just 9 months ago, a game that was anything but a one-sided laugher for the SEC favorite; EC actually out-gained Florida in that one & the Gators needed a late Vernon Hargreaves III interception in the end zone to seal the win.  But time changes everything.  Florida buried undermanned opening cupcake New Mexico State 61-13 in newly installed head coach Jim McElwain Swamp debut last weekend, whereas East Carolina , down to a 2nd string QB after a late summer injury, struggled in a win over Towson. 

Questions about Florida and, in particular, the Florida offense will be fair game until the Gators are well into SEC play, but they should be fine here.  In the end, the Gator gets the Pirate.  Anybody who read Peter Pan knows that.

Florida 42 East Carolina 17
Florida win probability: 92%
Florida cover probability: 56%


Oregon State at Michigan (-16)

A Harbaugh Homecoming in the Big House will spell big trouble for the Beavers, we think.  UM out-gained and out-first downed Utah last weekend in Salt Lake City, but couldn't overcome 3 turnovers.  Oregon State & first year coach Gary Andersen (fresh off fleeing the state of Wisconsin and never-forget-I'm-the-boss AD Barry Alvarez) is starting a run-first, true freshman QB on Saturday in an exceptionally tough spot, given the 100K or so rabid, full-throated Wolverine faithful who will show up to cheer the return of a favorite son.

Michigan big.  Give the points.

Michigan 38 Oregon State 13
Michigan win probability: 86%
Michigan cover probability: 55%