Week 2

Notre Dame (-11.5) at Virginia

The Irish, off what may have been the most impressive opener in the Brian Kelly era in their 38-3 dismantling of Texas, travel to Charlottesville to face the Wahoos, 34-16 road losers at UCLA last week.  We like the Irish here as well, but not necessarily in blowout fashion.  The temptation to look ahead to the Georgia Tech matchup next week in South Bend will be great for the Irish, whereas the Cavs, who lost 5 of their last 6 a year ago including their 11th in a row to rival Virginia Tech, will be eyeing a nationally televised opportunity to pull head coach Mike London off the hot seat.  Virginia has some players and their passing game, in particular, will likely be a step up compared to what Notre Dame saw from toothless (armless?) Texas last Saturday.  But the UVa offensive line struggled at UCLA, so how the Cavaliers plan on dealing with Irish DT Sheldon Day and company is anyone's guess.  And the Cavalier linebackers are very young, which could be problematic given the wealth of playmakers in gold hats when Notre Dame has the ball.

Irish win.  Maybe not as comfortably as last weekend, maybe not 30-8 first down advantage comfortable, but  . . . Irish win.

Notre Dame 31 Virginia 20
Notre Dame win probability: 76%
Notre Dame cover probability: 49%


Florida International at Indiana (-7.5)

The Hoosiers escaped with their lives at home against Southern Illinois last Saturday, giving up 47 points but managing to steal a win only after the Salukis failed on a late 2-point conversion attempt.  Which begs the question, if an FCS team can come into your building and score almost 50, how many points will Ohio State pile up on the Cream & Crimson?  Or Michigan State?  Will there be enough juice in the scoreboard to count that high?  While the Indiana offense behind QB Nate Sudfeld, who looked no worse for last year's shoulder wear, moved the ball in the air (349 yards passing) and on the ground (246 yards rushing including 145 yards from UAB transfer Jordan Howard), their defense was the polar opposite...as usual.  SIU's 659 yards of total offense shattered the single-game school record for the Salukis.  Embarrassing for IU, for sure, but one sub-plot should be noted; IU suspended 9 players before the kickoff of the Southern Illinois game including 6 defensive players.  So the Hoosiers weren't at full speed last weekend, but they better get there soon.  Big Ten play beckons and the seat under head coach Kevin Wilson isn't getting any cooler.

Despite last week's cave-in, our lean is toward Indiana at home this weekend, even though the FIU (Figh-You?) Panthers and ex-Illinois head coach Ron Turner come in fresh off a 15-14 upset at Central Florida (FIU was a two touchdown dog in that one).  If IU gives up 32 first half points again this week, Wilson may not make it to Halloween with a head-set on in Bloomington.  And while I don't think they will melt down defensively two weeks in a row, the available qualitative data (i.e., a one game scare from a team tabbed to finish 7th in the Missouri Valley this season) suggests the Hoosiers will probably have their hands full again this weekend.  Tread cautiously here.  Bet the Over.

Indiana 37 Florida International 27
Indiana win probability: 68%
Indiana cover probability: 51%


Oregon at Michigan State (-3.5)

A huge opportunity and, perhaps, an early put-up-or-shut-up moment for Michigan State?  While there is no denying the impressive job Mark Dantonio and his staff have done in East Lansing, there is also no denying the gaudy defensive stats that MSU posted last year came mostly on the backs of weaker teams on their schedule.  The bigger boys they played (Oregon, Ohio State, and even Baylor in that freak show of a Cotton Bowl that MSU somehow came back to win) seemingly moved the ball up and down the field at will on Michigan State.  So what's the truth, Spartacus?  Oregon, on the other hand, gave up a surprising boatload of points to Eastern Washington in their season opening win over the Big Sky Eagles last weekend and no matter how good transfer QB Vernon Adams is, replacing Marcus "Best Duck to Ever Quack" Mariota is a tall order.

We're leaning plain Green and White in this one rather than Neon Green and Fluorescent Yellow with Feathered Trim.  In arguably one of the biggest home games in recent memory, the coached-up NFL talent MSU has on both sides of the ball will shine under the lights in Spartan Stadium on Saturday night.  Good things are in store for Michigan State this year.  Write it down.

Michigan State 38  Oregon 35
Michigan State win probability:  56%
Michigan State cover probability:  49%


Buffalo at Penn State (-20.5)

An embarrassing jolt and wake up call for the Nitts last and head coach James "Rah Rah" Franklin in their 27-10 loss at Temple last weekend.  PSU's offensive line will surely do a little better job keeping QB Christian Hackenberg on two feet this weekend; how could they do any worse?  Hackenburg was sacked 10 (10!!) times by the Owls last time out.  Ugly.  The SUNY-Buffalo Bulls, who couldn't stop the run last year and got head coach Jeff Quinn sacked mid-season because of it, throttled little brother Albany in their opener.  The Bulls step up in class a little this week and step into what should be a pretty bad spot for them given how listless and frankly (pardon the pun) unprepared Penn State looked in Week 1.

We'll say Penn State, with egos fully bruised, gets this one right.  But the offensive line issues that Temple exposed a week ago could cripple PSU once Big Ten plays starts.  Stay tuned.

Penn State 40 Buffalo 10
Penn State win probability: 90%
Penn State cover probability: 51%


East Carolina at Florida (-20.5)

The Gators topped East Carolina by a touchdown in the Birmingham Bowl just 9 months ago, a game that was anything but a one-sided laugher for the SEC favorite; EC actually out-gained Florida in that one & the Gators needed a late Vernon Hargreaves III interception in the end zone to seal the win.  But time changes everything.  Florida buried undermanned opening cupcake New Mexico State 61-13 in newly installed head coach Jim McElwain Swamp debut last weekend, whereas East Carolina , down to a 2nd string QB after a late summer injury, struggled in a win over Towson. 

Questions about Florida and, in particular, the Florida offense will be fair game until the Gators are well into SEC play, but they should be fine here.  In the end, the Gator gets the Pirate.  Anybody who read Peter Pan knows that.

Florida 42 East Carolina 17
Florida win probability: 92%
Florida cover probability: 56%


Oregon State at Michigan (-16)

A Harbaugh Homecoming in the Big House will spell big trouble for the Beavers, we think.  UM out-gained and out-first downed Utah last weekend in Salt Lake City, but couldn't overcome 3 turnovers.  Oregon State & first year coach Gary Andersen (fresh off fleeing the state of Wisconsin and never-forget-I'm-the-boss AD Barry Alvarez) is starting a run-first, true freshman QB on Saturday in an exceptionally tough spot, given the 100K or so rabid, full-throated Wolverine faithful who will show up to cheer the return of a favorite son.

Michigan big.  Give the points.

Michigan 38 Oregon State 13
Michigan win probability: 86%
Michigan cover probability: 55%