Week 4

Last Week Straight Up: 6-0
Last Week ATS: 4-2
YTD Straight Up: 12-0
YTD ATS: 8-4


UMass at Notre Dame (-28.5)

Notre Dame's eye-opening defensive effort in their 30-22 throttling of media darling Georgia Tech last weekend, during which Tech really couldn't breathe offensively until the final 10 minutes, provided a clinic for those who wonder why every team doesn't run the seemingly unstoppable Ramblin' Wreck option offense.  A talented and disciplined defensive front seven makes any offense "stoppable," it would seem.  The Minutemen hung in until the waning seconds against a solid Temple team last weekend but were wiped out by Colorado in their opener.  They lack the horses to go toe-to-toe with the Gold Hats this Saturday.

So sure, everything points to the Irish in this one.  But I would be ignoring available data if I didn't mention that Notre Dame teams in the Kelly era have had a tendency to play below their ability in supposed "breathers" like this one.  The model say Irish here, not surprisingly, but I would be hesitant to pay the 28.5 point spread price.  There are times when it's OK to argue with the math.

Notre Dame 42 UMass 17
Notre Dame win probability: 98%
Notre Dame cover probability: 66%


Tennessee (-1.5) at Florida

A big one in the Swamp for both teams.  Rocky Top natives, stinging from the 2OT home loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago and the 17-point lead their beloved Volunteers coughed up in that one, are getting a little restless wondering when that first, program-defining big win will actually happen for Butch Jones and staff.  The Gators are winning with defense, while they search for stability at QB and along the offensive line, but UF will be down a starting corner due to suspension (as well as Treon Harris, part-time QB starter).  All-world Florida CB Vernon "Revis" Hargreaves III, who seems to make at least one huge and impactful play every time he steps on a football field, remains in the lineup, though, so half the field will be off-limits to the UT passing game at all times.

A tough one to call, using your gut or using a model. The team that wins the ground game tends to win this rivalry, and UT definitely has options in that regard (e.g., Jalen Hurd).  It seems the talking head concensus is leaning Tennessee here, but I suspect that Florida's highly recruited group of front seven defensive playmakers will be the story in this one.

It's going to be tight, but give me the point-and-the-hook and 80,000 chomping Gator fans on their home turf. 

Florida 20 Tennessee 17
Florida win probability: 49%
Florida cover probability: 54%


Indiana (-3.5) at Wake Forest

Kevin Wilson's Hoosiers clearly have a different spin on the B10 traditions of physical defense and power running offenses . . . more along the lines of a scoreboard lighting run/pass mix on offense and a hold on for dear life defense.  That approach will catch up to them sooner or later, but not before they grab their elusive 6th win and become bowl eligible this season (you heard that here first) and not before this weekend on Tobacco Road.  The Demon Deacons survived a tight one at Army, 17-14, on a last second FG last weekend and may have true frosh Kendall Hinton under center against IU due to starter John Wofford's bum ankle.  Indiana RB Jordan Howard leads the nation in rushing yards and QB Nate Sudfeld has more than moved on from a injured shoulder a year ago.  The model remains skeptical of IU's chances of covering -3.5 on the road at Wake, but I just don't think Deacs will be able to keep up with Cream & Crimson offense this weekend.  Ohio State next weekend?  Probably.  Wake Forest this weekend?  Nope.

It's been 25 years since Indiana started a football season 4-0.  That streak ends on Saturday afternoon Winston-Salem.

Indiana 30 Wake Forest 23
Indiana win probability: 59%
Indiana cover probability: 49%


UCLA (-3) at Arizona

Toughest game on the slate to call this weekend, in my opinion.  Major PAC 12 South and national implications here.  Both teams will be missing All American candidate linebackers (Scooby Wright for the Wildcats, Myles Jack for the Bruins) in a game that will very likely be decided by defense.  True freshman QB Josh "The Rosen One" Rosen had a rough outing vs. BYU last weekend (three first half INTs) but UCLA nevertheless survived, 24-23.  Arizona has been blowing out the Northern Arizona's of the world to open their season, so it's tough to get a complete read on the Cats just yet.  We'll know a lot more tomorrow night in the desert.

I think this one will be a thriller.  The model likes UCLA to win but not cover, but I'm going against the spreadsheet and taking home dog Cats (or home Cat dogs?) based on what I think will be Arizona's ability to run the football and move the chains against the Jack-less UCLA defense.  It's what Rich-Rod teams do.
 
Arizona 34 UCLA 31, OT
Arizona win probability: 44%
Arizona cover probability: 52%


Middle Tennessee State at Illinois (-5.5)

Bad feelings abound here, Illini faithful.  Is the beat up on the little guys-only reputation Illinois is earning fair, given last week's toe-stubbing loss at North Carolina, or is that single game sample a non-representative outlier?  The problem this week is MTSU is very likely two touchdowns better than the Kent State team that the Illini blew out two weeks ago and they would similarly crush Western Illinois, much like Illinois did in their opener.  The battle here will be strength on strength.  The Blue Raiders have what may be the most efficient pass offense in C-USA and Illinois is probably more  reliable in the secondary than anywhere else on the roster.  Something has to give.

No more blowout wins and over-matched cupcakes for the Orange and Blue.  Illinois wins this one in Urbana, but only by a FG.  I'll take MTSU and the points.

Illinois 31 Middle Tennessee State 28
Illinois win probability: 61%
Illinois cover probability: 49% 


Ball State at Northwestern (-19)

The Purple Cats are anything but pretty on offense, but are totally stingy on defense (only 16 total points given up, 6 forced TOVs).  The BSU defense will be just what the doctor ordered for Northwestern in Evanston on Saturday.

Northwestern 35 Ball State 10
Northwestern win probability: 94%
Northwestern cover probability: 63%