Week 3

Last week straight up: 6-0
Last week ATS: 4-2


Georgia Tech (-3) at Notre Dame

My model isn't completely buying the Ramblin' Wreck-friendly, talking head narrative.  At least not in this spot.  And I'm not sure I am either.  Something is telling me there will be a little more to this game than whether or not Notre Dame can defend the option.  Like, for example, whether or not Georgia Tech can figure out how to stop the Irish.  Sure, Tech is "Navy with athletes" and the Notre Dame injury list seems to expand daily, but this game will be won or lost at the line of scrimmage.  And the Irish will have the upper hand at the point of attack all afternoon, regardless of which team has the football or who's lining up under center.

Granted, if Notre Dame plays like they did a week ago at UVa, particularly in short yardage and red zone situations on offense and with what at times looked like a step slow & out of position secondary on defense, Georgia Tech's shot at an attention-grabbing win in South Bend improves dramatically.  But I think the Irish, against their better judgment, looked ahead a little last week and it showed.  I expect a more focused-on-the-moment Notre Dame to run out of the tunnel on Saturday.

Getting young QBs ready for unexpected starts is a Brian Kelly specialty dating back to his Cincinnati Bearcat days.  DeShone Kizer won't be asked to do everything for Notre Dame on Saturday and because of that, he'll do enough. 

Take the points and the Irish, a rare home dog on Saturday in Notre Dame Stadium.

Notre Dame win probability: 66%
Notre Dame cover probability: 73%
Notre Dame 35 Georgia Tech 31


Illinois at North Carolina (-9.5)

The 2-0 Fighting Illini are already playing with house money, in my opinion.  Given the school-wide administrative meltdown in Urbana over the summer culminating in the dismissal of head coach Tim Beckman about 20 minutes before the season-opening kickoff, what does Illinois really have to lose in Chapel Hill on Saturday?  Or anywhere else this season?  Nothing.  And to me, the dirty little orange and blue secrets are that Bill Cubit is probably more qualified to be a head coach in the Big Ten than Beckman ever was and redshirt junior QB Wes Lunt may very well be one of the better QBs in the conference.  The trick is keeping Lunt healthy.  UNC has just 2 sacks in 2 games so far this season; watch how much pressure the Heels can or cannot put on Lunt in this one.  That fact alone could go a long way toward deciding this one.

Vegas expects a near double-digit home field win for the Tar Heels, fresh off a 53-14 pasting of North Carolina A&T.  I say not so fast my friend.  Sure, the Illini haven't been tested, schedule-wise, but averaging 140 yards rushing in their first two games under the circumstances would have showed me some mental toughness, even if they had played Rose-Hulman and Wabash to open their season.

Take the points.

Illinois win probability: 50%
Illinois cover probability: 72%
North Carolina 31 Illinois 27


Auburn at LSU (-7)

Even at 2-0, there may be nowhere to go but up for War Eagle.  Auburn managed to snatch a victory from the jaws of defeat against the juggernaut Jacksonville State Gamecocks a week ago, they have what so far looks like an over-hyped and possibly over-matched young QB under center, and they've somehow managed to turn the football over on 30% of their offensive possessions so far this season.  LSU, on the other hand, won a grinding, Les Miles-type opener at Mississippi State last week, they have NFL-level talent in their backfield (Leonard Fournette) which Auburn sorely lacks, and more stability at QB each passing day.  Add to that the simple but undeniable fact that the home team always wins this matchup and you get big pile of Bayou trouble for AU.

LSU by plenty.

LSU win probability: 76%
LSU cover probability: 62%
LSU 37 Auburn 21


Florida (-3) at Kentucky

The Wildcats haven't opened SEC play 2-0 since the Carter administration.  I don't think they will this year either, but the model isn't as confident.  Florida may be finding a long-sought answer at QB in Will Grier, but the Gators were sloppy, to put it kindly, in their 7-point home win over East Carolina last week (4-13 on third down conversions, 12 penalties for 105 yards, two turnovers, and a couple missed FGs).  That kind of performance this weekend in Lexington will earn the Gators another 3OT gut wrenching win, at best.  Or more likely an outright loss.  The Cats, on the other hand, broke an epic 22-game road losing streak in Columbia last week, with a 26-22 win over South Carolina.  UK lead 24-7 at the half in that one and never punted in the first half, but needed a some major defensive stands to hold on the for win; Kentucky held SC to 3 FGs on 3 2nd half trips inside the red zone.

Don't bet the farm either way in this one.

Florida win probability: 56%
Florida cover probability: 48%
Florida 24 Kentucky 23


Air Force at Michigan State (-26)

The Spartans are 2-0 and moving up into rarified air, poll-wise, but I would imagine Mark Dantonio had his team's undivided attention all week given how easily things could have turned out differently last Saturday night against Oregon.  And now, for their sins, MSU gets a "breather" against a typically scary & motivated service academy this week.  That's the kind of sub-optimal scheduling only a Notre Dame fan can appreciate!

Spartacus wins another one at home and moves to 3-0, but 26 points is too much lumber.

Michigan State win probability: 85%
Michigan State cover probability: 29%
Michigan State 41 Air Force 17


Western Kentucky at Indiana (-1.5)

Hoosiers are justifiably only a tick above a pick 'em at home vs. the C-USA Hilltoppers, who come to Bloomington off an impressive 41-38 home win over Louisiana Tech...impressive but costly.  WKU's leading rusher Leon Allen suffered a pretty awful leg injury in the Tech game and will miss the IU trip.  UAB transfer Jordan Howard enjoyed a 2nd straight 100 yard rushing day for Indiana last weekend, in IU's 36-22 win over Florida International, QB Nate Sudfeld played well, and the Indiana defense showed some backbone after their toe-stub of an opening night vs. Southern Illinois.

Western Kentucky is solid and easily the best team IU has played to date in 2015.  But Indiana is showing progress.  If the IU defense can keep WKU under 425 yards of total offense, the Hoosier offense will take care of the rest.

The model is more pessimistic about the Hoosiers than I am here.  I say Indiana in another track meet.

Indiana win probability: 50%        
Indiana cover probability: 46%
Indiana 42 Western Kentucky 38