Week 5 - A Wet One in Death Valley, Hoosiers’ Entertain National Champs, and Sparty Picks on Purdue Pete

Last Week Straight Up: 5-1
Last ATS: 3-3
YTD Straight Up: 17-1
YTD ATS: 11-7

Notre Dame at Clemson

A wet one in Death Valley?  Tough to include Hurricane-induced wind and rain in the model, but it’s safe to say the most important player in the Irish-Tiger matchup Saturday night will be named either DeShone, Deshaun, or Joaquin.  

I’m typically not one to lean either direction when factoring weather effects into CFB predictions, but I honestly think a car wash atmosphere in Clemson, SC tomorrow works to Notre Dame’s advantage.  Rain will inhibit Deshaun Watson’s playmaking ability and might even take the crowd out of the equation, if the nasty forecast does comes in.  Notre Dame has advantages on both lines of scrimmage in this one given that Clemson put a sizeable chunk of their close-to-awesome 2014 defense in the NFL last spring and their 2015 O-Line is young AND beat up. 

A rainy track shouldn’t slow up the Irish running game and that will be the difference in this one.  Notre Dame squishes to 5-0.

Notre Dame 24 Clemson 21

Notre Dame win probability: 54%
Notre Dame cover probability: 56%

 

Ohio State (-21.5) at Indiana

Reality pays a visit to Memorial Stadium in Bloomington on Saturday.  The Indiana offense is as exciting as ever & IU is 4-0 for the first time since the Bush administration (Bush I not Bush II).  But the IU defense has holes and may be just what the doctor ordered for a semi-struggling Buckeye offense (struggling being a relative term for a team ranked #1 in the national polls and #8 per My Numbers).  Even in what appears to me to be an extended pre-season tune up mode to answer any/all questions at the quarterback position, Ohio State should be able to name their score in this one.  The only question is whether the Hoosiers can push the pace enough offensively themselves to keep Vegas on edge.

The model likes Brutus to win emphatically, but I’ll disagree a little and say Indiana slides in with a late back-door cover, when Ohio State has pulled their defensive starters, has lost interest, and is thinking about Maryland next week (who isn’t as good as Indiana, Buckeye fans, so you can stay in your Lay-Z-Boys for another week at least).  The actual outcome of this one, however, should never be in doubt after the opening kickoff.

Live to fight another day, Cream and Crimson.

Ohio State 45 Indiana 24

Ohio State win probability: 90%
Ohio State cover probability: 54%

 

Purdue at Michigan State (-21.5)

With plenty of wise guys and non-insiders (like me!!) saying the Spartans haven’t played that well this year despite their lofty national poll ranking, I’m afraid this might be the week they lay some serious lumber on somebody and show how good they really are, all relevant 2015 data notwithstanding.  And that somebody is the struggling Purdue Boilermakers, who haven’t done much of anything right one month into the 2015 schedule (1-3 and yet to hold an FBS opponent under 35 points).  While teams have had surprising success throwing the football against MSU this year, the Boilermaker passing game isn’t nearly tooled up enough to do the same (#100 out of 128 FBS teams in passing efficiency).

Recent history in this series suggests at least the possibility of a tighter than expected outcome; two of the last four MSU-Purdue games were decided by less than a TD.  But history is blind to the current reality of two programs moving in polar opposite directions.  Spartacus rolls and covers. 

Michigan State 42 Purdue 10

Michigan State win probability: 92%
Michigan State cover probability: 54%

 

Minnesota at Northwestern (-3.5)

I think there is a lot of similarity between these two teams, but there are some important differences as well.  The Gophers and Wildcats both have had success running the football this year and both are looking for more consistency in the air.  Defensive efficiency for both teams is similar, although Northwestern has been tougher to score on for sure and the Cats have played the tougher schedule.  Minnesota hung tough in an opening weekend home loss to TCU but looked less than impressive in surprisingly tight wins over Colorado State, Kent State (who Illinois beat by 197 points), and Ohio U.   Northwestern, on the other hand, owns impressive wins over two Top 25 teams (Stanford and Duke) and, in all honesty, handled Ball State last weekend a lot more convincingly than the final score indicated.  The Wildcats had major yardage and first down advantages in that one and if they didn’t have a half dozen players limp off the field for various reasons, Ball State probably wouldn’t have hung around like they did. 

So what happens here?   Every published power rating I’m aware of has Northwestern anywhere from 8-10 points better than the Gophers right now and my numbers lean that way as well, but the Vegas line is -3.5.  Scary, for Purple Cat fans, as those guys tend to know more than everybody else.  My suspicion is Minnesota’s middle-of-the-road rush defense will wear down eventually and have some trouble keeping Northwestern’s physical ground-and-pound game from moving the chains. These Gophers tend to hang around, though, and they’re well-coached.  I don’t think this one will be decided until the 4^th quarter.

 

Northwestern moves to 5-0, but they’ll have to earn it.

Northwestern 24 Minnesota 21

Northwestern win probability:  72%
Northwestern cover probability:  66%

 

Alabama at Georgia (-2)

It’s been 72 games and 3 national titles since the 2009 Alabama-Florida SEC title game, which was the last time Alabama was an underdog.  Until this week.  Georgia has done little wrong this year, the Dawgs are clearly an SEC East threat, and just might be CFB playoff worthy when all is said and done this season.  Alabama, on the other hand, has put surprisingly little pressure on opposing QBs so far, they coughed up 5 turnovers in a sloppy home loss to Ole Miss, and haven’t been nearly as impactful in the secondary as previous editions of Roll Tide.  So this all looks peachy for Georgia, right?

Not so fast my friend.  Don’t be too quick to write off the unprecedented recruiting run that Saban and the Tide have been on over the last five years. 

I have a nagging hunch that Alabama’s defense is pretty much set up to deal with exactly the things UGA likes to do.  Georgia doesn’t show the spread-to-run look like teams that gave Alabama trouble recently (Auburn & Ohio State last season, Ole Miss this year).  Rather, they pound it pretty much straight ahead and are conventional in the passing game.  So sure, if Nick Chubb runs downhill for 150 yards on Saturday, the Dawgs will win this one, they will rocket up the national polls, and Chubb will dash to the top of the Heisman leader board.  But can he?  Georgia’s O-line was really good last year and returned 4/5’s intact this summer.  Bama’s front seven, though, may be the best in the country.  Also, while UVA transfer QB Greyson Lambert has been a surprisingly accurate revelation for Georgia (particularly to Cavalier fans in Charlottesville!), he’s not a stress-the-edge type of running threat.  So containing/spying becomes less of a concern when the Tide go straight coverage against Lambert.

I think Georgia might be good enough to beat Alabama this year given that the game is in Athens, even with the Tide playing for their season.  My numbers are non-committal, though, so I guess I’m on my own.  And I’m going to say that the Alabama-Ole Miss game two weeks ago was a freak show that the Tide should have won and that, with their backs to the wall and season on the line, Alabama will keep Georgia in their traditional place on Saturday.  The place where Bulldog fans question why Mark Richt can’t ever get completely over the hump, for all the good things the current Dean of SEC Coaches has done at Georgia.

Alabama 27 Georgia 25

Alabama win probability: 51%
Alabama cover probability:  55%

 

Nebraska (-6.5) at Illinois

This one might surprise some people.  Even though they barely escaped with their lives last week against the Blue Raiders of MTSU-Murfreesboro and the Huskers have played a tougher schedule, the Illini are shaking out as a reasonably live dog in this one to me.  Anyone know why Illinois and Nebraska always open Big Ten play against each other?  Weird.

Lunt throws for 300 yards but the Blue and Orange fall a little short.

Nebraska 27 Illinois 21

Nebraska win probability: 51%
Nebraska cover probability: 34%

 

Mississippi (-7.5) at Florida

Nobody is going to push around the Gators, not with the defense they put on the field every week.  But unlike last week, where the snake-bitten, mojo-less UT Volunteers proved to everyone south of Knoxville that they'll never, ever beat Florida again, Ole Miss is a little further along the talent curve.  The Rebels likely won't need UF to spot them 5 turnovers to grab this one in the Swamp.

Better days are coming for Florida under McIlvaine, I believe, and not that far off.  And while I think the -7.5 point price is a little steep for the favorite Rebs, Ole Miss wins a tight one here.

 
Mississippi 31 Florida 27
Mississippi win probability: 70%
Mississippi cover probability: 51%


Iowa at Wisconsin (-7.5)

And one more for you, of the shocker-of -the-week variety.  Take Iowa and the points tomorrow & if you want to impress your friends, tell them you think Iowa has a chance at upsetting Bucky Badger in Madison.  Not conventional wisdom, for sure, but I think the B10 West is more wide open than most realize and Wisconsin football is rapidly coming back down to earth.

Can't always take the chalk, right?

Iowa 27 Wisconsin 24
Iowa win probability: 28%
Iowa cover probability: 41%