Last Week Straight Up: 5-3
Last Week ATS: 4-4
YTD Straight Up: 22-4
YTD ATS: 15-11
Indiana at Penn State (-8)
My Numbers tend to frown on the Hoosiers because the of truckload of yardage they give up every weekend, but PSU's offensive efficiency seems to drop weekly in lock step with Christian Hackenberg's NFL draft stock. Both teams have flaws.
I would feel a lot better about this one from an IU perspective if QB Nate Sudfeld AND RB Jordan Howard had not gone down in the close-but-no-cigar effort against Ohio State last weekend. If one or the other (or both) sit out, an unimpressive Penn State team might get a gift-wrapped win.
The Nitts, grudgingly.
Penn State 31 Indiana 24
Penn State win probability: 68%
Penn State cover probability: 50%
Oklahoma (-17) at Texas
The Sooners have been solid in the Red River Rivalry under Stoops and Texas can't get out of it's own way. The only thing saving Charlie Strong right now, besides the fact that he's only been in Austin for about 20 minutes, is that interim ADs are rarely allowed to fire head football coaches. The Longhorns have already started this clean-up job, a rung higher than Strong.
Boomer!
Oklahoma 41 Texas 20
Oklahoma win probability: 88%
Oklahoma cover probability: 52%
Illinois at Iowa (-11)
The Wild Wild Big Ten West race continues. Damn shame RB Josh Ferguson has a bum shoulder, which will limit the Illini's options on offense, because I think the Illinois defense will be a problem for Iowa. Particularly on third & long.
Closer than Vegas things. But not close enough for the Orange & Blue.
Iowa 27 Illinois 20
Iowa win probability: 72%
Iowa cover probability: 48%
Ball State at Northern Illinois (-11.5)
The Huskies have lost 3 in a row, which doesn't happen often, including last week's close loss at Central Michigan. Ball State comes to DeKalb off a loss as well, having been pushed around by Toledo last week.
NIU owns this series, winning the last 6 straight by double digits & 13 of the last 16. Make that 14 of 17. But only by a touchdown.
Northern Illinois 27 Ball State 20
Northern Illinois win probability: 70%
Northern Illinois cover probability: 44%
Navy at Notre Dame (-14.5)
Irish have seen a faster version of the triple option this year (Ga Tech), they're 8-1 against option teams under Kelly, and will rebound from the Clemson loss quicker than most suspect. This line is too low.
Notre Dame 40 Navy 20
Notre Dame win probability: 88%
Notre Dame cover probability: 62%
Northwestern at Michigan (8.5)
First team to 17 wins in a truly old school defensive standoff. Michigan has played a tougher schedule and their offense is a little better. Not much, but enough.
Vegas has the O/U set at 35 for this one. Too high!
Michigan 17 Northwestern 13
Michigan win probability: 62%
Michigan cover probability: 44%
Florida (-6) at Missouri
Freshman QBs square off in Columbia, but the defenses will be the show. Mizzou's D is pretty good, despite the tough start to the season the Tigers have endured. Florida surprised many by standing up to Ole Miss and sending them back to Oxford with loss.
Maty Mauk's legal woes coming so close to kickoff of this one will make this a tough get for Missouri, even at home. Gators by a TD.
Florida 20 Missouri 13
Florida win probability: 68%
Florida cover probability: 52%
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