Week 8 - Indiana Faces Charmed Spartans in East Lansing, Illini Ask Bucky Badger to the Homecoming Dance, and Northwestern Meets Angry Huskers in the Corn Belt

Last Week Straight Up: 9-1

Last Week ATS: 7-3
YTD Straight Up: 37-6
YTD ATS: 25-18

Seven winners out of ten games against the spread last week last week, sports fans.  Accessing this blog on a Smart Phone anywhere within 50 miles of the Las Vegas Strip will be a misdemeanor in the state of Nevada any day now!

 

Indiana at Michigan State (-16)

Lost in the madness and post-game chatter concerning MSU’s dramatic, last-play, botched punt win at Michigan last weekend, to me, is the fact that the Spartans really outplayed Michigan (150 more yards, 10 more first downs).  I said last week that the better offense would win that one and I was right, although I can’t claim to have predicted the miracle finish!

Indiana’s epic, 25-point collapse at home vs. Rutgers has many in Bloomington scratching their heads and wondering if the Kevin Wilson regime has hit a ceiling it will never break through.  IU has a plus passing game and the most efficient QB in the Big Ten in Nate Sudfeld, but none of that matters when the Indiana’s worst-in-conference defense takes the field.  The Hoosiers simply don’t stop anyone with any consistency and when you toss in three 4^th quarter turnovers like IU had last weekend, you have all the ingredients necessary for disaster chili.

Spartacus may feel a little hangover from last weekend but they are too well-coached to get too far out over their skis.  Every game is a playoff game for MSU from here on out.  State wins and covers.

 

Michigan State 45 Indiana 27
Michigan State win probability: 86%
Michigan State cover provability: 55%

 

Northwestern at Nebraska (-7)

The Huskers has moved the football all year but their surprisingly weak pass defense has let them down late in more than one game this season.  A visit from Northwestern may be just what the doctor ordered for Big Red.  NU completes only a shade over 50% of their pass attempts and Wildcat RB Justin Jackson appears to have been noticed in Big Ten video rooms; only 55 yards rushing for Jackson in the last two games after 500+ in the first five.  I think Northwestern’s inability to mount drives and stay on the field (only 23 offensive possession minutes against Iowa) is exhausting their defense.

Bad spot for the Purple Cats.

Nebraska 35 Northwestern 13

Nebraska win probability: 78%
Nebraska cover probability: 63%

 

Wisconsin (-6) at Illinois
 
The Badgers are as tough to score on as ever, but their offense has been almost unrecognizable of late.  UW is winning through the air rather than pounding the rock (consecutive 300+ yard passing efforts by QB Joel Stave and ~45 passing attempts/game in the last two).  In fact, Wisconsin currently ranks 12^th in the Big Ten in rushing which has to be giving Boss Alvarez heart burn, despite the 5-2 record.  Iowa was able to run the football against Illinois last weekend; the story in this one may come down to whether or not Wisconsin can as well.

Illini QB Wes Lunt has quietly thrown 9 TDs vs. only 2 INTs this season but RB Ferguson will be missed again on Saturday. 

I’ll take the points but say Illinois falls short on Homecoming weekend in Urbana.

Wisconsin 27 Illinois 24

Wisconsin win probability: 66%
Wisconsin cover probability: 50%

 

Utah at USC (-3.5)

The embattled Trojans, five days after waving goodbye to head coach Steve Sarkisian and saying hello again to semi-annually interim head coach Clay Helton, rallied from a 14-point deficit in South Bend last Saturday night but fell to the Irish 41-31.  If USC QB Cody Kessler had not thrown 2 late INTs and the Trojans had not piled up over 100 penalty yards, the outcome of that one might have been very different.

Vegas won’t call this one an upset but the pollsters sure will.  The Men of Troy, in a must-win situation at home, show a Pac-12 South pulse and knock off the unbeaten UUs.

USC 31 Utah 27

USC win probability: 63%
USC cover probability: 56%

 

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois (-27.5)

EMU’s almost non-existent run defense will give up over 300 yards rushing to NIU in this one.  Write it down.

Huskies by a truckload.

Northern Illinois 51 Eastern Michigan 21

Northern Illinois win probability: 97%
Northern Illinois cover probability: 56%

 

**** Wyoming at Boise State (-35) *****
      My Numbers Lock of the Week!!!!

Give all the points you have to in this one and take the favored Broncos on their Smurf-blue home field turf over the troubled Cowpokes.  My Numbers are calling for a completely one-sided, lock-of-the-week blowout.

Boise State 56 Wyoming 10

Boise State win probability: 99%
Boise State cover probability: 65%