Week 11 - Demon Deacons in South Bend, a Harbaugh-Inflated Point Spread in Bloomington, Brutus Invades Urbana, and a B12 Showdown in Waco

Last Week SU: 6-4

Last Week ATS: 2-8 (sometimes the bear gets you!)
YTD SU: 52-11
YTD ATS: 31-33

 

Wake Forest at Notre Dame (-27.5)

The Fighting Irish, now down to their third-string quarterback AND third-string running back per the per the spring ball depth chart, cracked the CFB Playoff Committee Top 4 this week, proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that My Numbers are influencing the proceedings.  Somebody in that room is reading this blog!!    :)

The Demon Deacons, who travel to northern Indiana this weekend off a bye, have lost 5 of 6 but hung with Louisville in a 20-19 home loss two weeks ago.  Scoring points more than stopping people has been Wake Forest’s biggest concern this year and they won’t score enough on Saturday to upset any Irish apple carts.

Give all 27.5 on Senior Day in South Bend.

Notre Dame 42 Wake Forest 13

Notre Dame win probability: 97%

Notre Dame cover probability: 59%

 

Michigan (-12.5) at Indiana

The Hoosiers came up an onside kick recovery short of stunning unbeaten Iowa in Bloomington, but the fact remains that IU is getting outscored 128-54 in the 4^th quarter this year and is 0-5 in conference.  Three games left now and Indiana needs to find two wins among those three to become bowl eligible for the first time in eight years.  The problem is the last time the Hoosiers beat Michigan in a football game, Bo Schembechler was two years away from retirement (1987).  It just doesn’t happen very often.

I suspect a little Harbaugh inflation is being applied to this particular betting line.  Vegas must like how Michigan goes for two after 3^rd quarter touchdowns in games where they have 25 point leads, like they did last week vs. Rutgers (we all know you’re a badass, Jim…calm down).  Michigan, per My Numbers, is no better than Iowa and for that reason alone, I think Indiana will hang with the Wolverines and cover double-digits, just like they hung with the Hawkeyes and the rest of the Big 10 elite (Spartans, Buckeyes).    In fact, an upset here wouldn’t completely shock me.  The Hoosiers are clearly knocking on the door and UM doesn’t have a breathtakingly potent offense; not yet anyway.  But in my heart of hearts, and through the lens of my laptop, I just can’t see Indiana getting enough defensive stops down the stretch to actually pull off this stunner. 

Close but short.  Again.

Michigan 30 Indiana 27

Michigan win probability: 78%
Michigan cover probability: 49%

Purdue at Northwestern (-14.5)

My Numbers have been tough on the Purple Cats this season, but they are clearly gaining steam with two straight wins after consecutive losses, whereas there aren’t enough negative metrics available to fully quantify Purdue’s home meltdown vs. Illinois last weekend.  Boilermaker Head Coach Darrell Hazel called the 48-14 bitch-slapping in Ross-Ade Stadium “a surprising lack of energy” and he amazingly gets to keep his job after uttering that nonsense while coordinators are shown the door, players contemplate transferring, and the West Lafayette football crater gets deeper and deeper.  Is it the rumored ~$6.5MM buyout in Hazell's contract that is saving his bacon?  Good luck with all that, Purdue fans.

Northwestern clearly has bigger fish to fry and Purdue will be a long-forgotten speed bump once an exciting and well-deserved bowl bid is offered to Coach Fitz and his Wildcats in a few weeks.

Northwestern by plenty. 

Northwestern 30 Purdue 16

Northwestern win probability: 89%
Northwestern cover probability: 63%

 

Maryland at Michigan State (-15.5)

The offensively-challenged Terrapins, clearly struggling with advanced football concepts like “the forward pass” and in a bit of interim coach hell right now (6 straight losses), travel to East Lansing to face the Spartans, who have to be pissed & exasperated after a swallowed whistle for the ages and a beat up/inexperienced secondary conspired to put them on the wrong side of the ledger for the first time after 12 consecutive wins. 

All the ingredients necessary for a warm and healthy batch of turtle soup, right?

Michigan State 38 Maryland 20

Michigan State win probability: 88%
Michigan State cover probability: 59%

 

Ohio State (-16.5) at Illinois

I suspected RB Josh Ferguson’s return would be important to the Fighting Illini, but in no way did I think it would be 48-14 shot-in-the-arm-type important.  Ferguson and backfield-mate Ke’Shawn Vaughn combined for 11 yards per carry against the helpless Boilermaker defense, en route to the lopsided road win.  But an admittedly bigger dog will be staring across the sideline from you this weekend, Orange and Blue.

The HBO mini-series-worthy Ohio State QB saga rolls into Champaign-Urbana on Saturday, obscuring what is the real story for these Buckeyes . . . defense.  Ohio State gives up a stingy 15 points per game and it is the OSU defense that is quietly floating the Buckeye soap opera right now.

Keep Bill Cubit around next season, Illini fans, and take the points this Saturday.  I expect that the not-flashy-but-solid Illinois defense won’t get completely trucked in this game and this is no year to be hunting for a new head coach anyway.  Unfortunately though, ten Bill Cubits, five John Mackovics, and a couple Mike Whites might not be enough to get you this win.

Illinois covers.  Brutus marches on.

Ohio State 31 Illinois 17

Ohio State win probability: 82%
Ohio State cover probability: 44%

 

Oklahoma at Baylor (-2.5)

A huge one in Waco with Big 12 and CFB Playoff seed implications.  Baylor has the most efficient offense in the country and the loss of starting QB Seth Russell doesn’t appear to have slowed the Bears much at all.  My question about Baylor all year has been strength of schedule, a question that should be at least partially answered this weekend.  Oklahoma, on the other hand, has an offensive/defensive efficiency balance rivaling anyone in the conference and anyone in the country, frankly.  I strongly suspect the Sooners are one neutral site loss to Texas out of the CFP Playoff discussion right now and may very well force their way in soon (pardon the pun) despite that loss.

I can’t wait to see how this game turns out.  The model calls it pretty much unbettable from a point spread perspective.  Baylor’s passing game has gotten plenty of accolades this year, and justifiably so, but Oklahoma has played a tougher schedule and has a better defense.

Sooners crash the party.

Oklahoma 45 Baylor 41

Oklahoma win probability: 49%
Oklahoma cover probability: 54%